• PAGE ONE
• INDEX
• HOME

Export growth target scaled down to 12 pc

Our Bureau

NEW DELHI, July 13

AFTER the first quarter of the current fiscal and after carefully monitoring the external situation and domestic dismal industrial scenario, the Commerce Ministry today set an export growth target of 12 per cent in dollar terms at $49.7 billion for 2001- 02, the final year of the Ninth Plan (1997-2002).

The relatively moderate target needs to be viewed against last year's higher export performance when the export growth was 20.74 per cent at $44.3 billion. Considering the higher base of last year's performance, this year's target is construed to be a re alistic one.

But against the average export target of 11.8 per cent a year for the Ninth Plan, the performance in the first four years was highly volatile at 4.5 per cent in 1997-98, -3.9 per cent in 1998-99, 11.6 per cent in 1999-2000 and 20.74 per cent in 2000-01.

The average for the first four years of the Ninth Plan works out to 8.22 per cent and even if the current fiscal export target of 12 per cent is achieved, the overall average export growth for the Ninth Plan works out to 9 per cent, against the adumbrate d export target of 11.8 per cent per annum for the quinquennium(1997-2002).

The current fiscal merchandise exports have been fixed after extensive consultation with various export promotion councils (EPCs) and commodity boards. The target fixed this fiscal is mostly based on the projections made by the EPCs and commodity boards for their respective sectors.

Among the several sectors which are likely to show marked growth this year are chemicals and related products, ores and minerals; electronic goods, petroleum products, project goods, leather and leather manufactures and some agricultural items.

Though the Textile Ministry had earlier indicated the possibility of achieving $17 billion by way of textile exports this fiscal, a realistic assessment based on ground realities of slowdown in demand in major apparel markets abroad, especially in the US and Europe has resulted in downsizing the initial higher target. Thus, the target for the textile sector export is fixed at $13.7 billion, projecting a growth rate of 13.4 per cent.

Trade sources indicated that even this 12 per cent export target is difficult to accomplish given the slowdown of the world economy in general and the world trade in particular. Preliminary estimates for world economy, by the IMF in its latest World Econ omic Outlook Projection in May and the WTO's forecast, do not show any encouraging sign as both have drastically cut down the forecast growth rate for world production and world trade.

Add to these external factors, the domestic industrial production has not been showing any sign of recovery as the index of industrial production (IIP) has been slipping in the first two months of the current fiscal on top of a 5 per cent growth in 2000- 01.