The Hindu Business Line : Mumbai mayhem has its fallout on Kerala

The fact that Kerala, a State in the southwest corner of India, has always been inextricably linked to events beyond its physical borders was reiterated in a rather sad and traumatising manner last week in the wake of the terrorist attacks on Mumbai.

While trying to rescue his injured fellow soldiers during Operation Cyclone, the code name for the anti-terrorist counterattack at the Taj Mahal Hotel in Mumbai that began in the early hours of 27 November, 31-year-old Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan of the National Security Guards (NSG), a resident of Bangalore born to Malayalee parents, was killed in terrorist gunfire.

Not far away, at a platform of the Chathrapathi Sivaji Terminus (CST) Railway Station, 27-year-old Aneesh Prabhu and his father Murugan, residents of Thiruvananthapuram, were shot dead by the two terrorists who sprayed bullets inside the station.

Wider echo

Kerala’s links with the Mumbai mayhem go beyond the parochial sentimentality of Malayalees being victims of unforeseen circumstances. Being a particularly globalised State, events and happenings in most parts of the world – especially if they have some economic or commercial significance – ultimately find an echo in Kerala, however insular the populace’s outlook may sometimes appear to be.

In the wake of the Mumbai mayhem, for Kerala the real victim may well turn out to be economic, rather than political or communal.

Consider the principal targets of the mayhem: iconic symbols of Indian business and commerce, namely, top-notch business hotels such as the Taj and the Trident-Oberoi, CST railway station, which is the city’s nerve centre of commerce and transportation – and foreigners, particularly Westerners visiting India for business or pleasure or work, including innocent religious folk such as the Rabbi Gavriel Holtzberg and his wife Rivka, who were killed at Nariman House, the Mumbai headquarters of the Chabad-Lubavitch ultra-orthodox Jewish community.

Economic fallout

The economic repercussions of the Mumbai mayhem will be stark, at least in the short term, for sure. Small and medium enterprises will rethink their plans for setting up shop in major Indian metros, and tourists will defer travel plans.

The international rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) expects the tourism and hotel industry to suffer the greatest impact in the near term as foreign tourist inflows start to dry up.

Already the governments of countries such as the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and France have issued travel advisories urging its citizens to exercise caution in travelling to Mumbai.

And remember that several of those travellers who finally arrive in Kerala do so via Mumbai. According to Kerala’s travel trade, the State’s tourism sector had already been tightening its belt anticipating a 25-30 per cent drop in total tourist arrivals due to the global economic slowdown.

With the terrorist attacks on Mumbai, that cut in inbound tourist traffic can only get worse.

Already, owners of hotels and resorts across the State, including those in popular destinations such as Kovalam and Fort Kochi, are bemoaning the steady trickle of reservation cancellations. Some other media reports suggest a 15 per cent cancellation in airline bookings to India.

If tourism in Kerala is likely to take a hit post-Mumbai, so is the allied hospitality industry. The major cities of Kerala such as Kochi, Thiruvananthapuram and Kozhikode boast some high-profile properties of major hoteliers – both Indian and multinational – which are frequented by Western tourists and business travellers, including those in the information technology sector who would wish to visit the State’s electronics and software parks such as Technopark in Thiruvananthapuram and the forthcoming Smart City in Kochi.

Even as most of these hotels have stepped up their security in the wake of the Mumbai mayhem, many potential visitors would rather wait and watch rather than commit themselves to a prolonged stay in one of these properties.

Security threat

Maritime security is the other issue that will confront Kerala in the aftermath of the terror strikes in Mumbai. With reports that the terrorists entered Mumbai on inflated dinghies launched from a hijacked fishing trawler, the entire 590-km coastline of Kerala will now come under extra scrutiny.

At a press meeting in New Delhi soon after the encounter at Mumbai’s Taj hotel was successfully ended, Mr M.L. Kumavat, Special Secretary, Home Ministry, said that the Government would enhance coastal security all over the country through a centralised co-ordinating mechanism.

The Indian Coast Guard Station at Vizhinjam near Thiruvananthapuram is preparing for a major upgradation programme that will equip it with better facilities for marine and aerial surveillance as well as rescue operations.

The enhanced monitoring, control and surveillance of Kerala’s coasts will also affect – if not hamper – fisheries-related activities for both the traditional small-scale sector, which uses smaller fishing craft, and the mechanised large-scale sector, which employs motorised boats and trawlers.

Clearly, the manifestation in Kerala of the Mumbai mayhem will take different forms and degrees of intensity. As an economy that depends greatly on external linkages, the State has no option but to face these challenges with the same grit, tenacity and sense of purpose that the NSG displayed in putting an end to the Mumbai massacre.

The writer can be contacted at kgkumar@gmail.com

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