The Hindu Business Line : Economic parodies

"SLUM dwellers swell even as number of slums shrink." Is this typical of the assessment of economists on different issues? What else accounts for numerous variations of the popular jibe "where there are five economists, it is certain that you have at least six views," such remarks being attributed to economists themselves like D. H. Robertson and statesmen like Winston Churchill?

In fact, quite often, economists elaborately debate on the possible and the probable of a situation, only to realise later that the actual turns out to be entirely different from what was anticipated. It is noteworthy that even the moves of the IMF are often found to be flawed.

Curiously, economics seems to be the only sphere in which results of well-intentioned moves of the authorities go haywire. It is interesting to study the violent fluctuations which the world economy has been undergoing over the decades past, notwithstanding the commendable efforts of economists and administrators alike to check them. Ultimately, the economists have to content themselves stating that "a horse can be taken to pond, but it cannot be made to drink!"

Economic phenomena seemed to abound in contradictions, even paradoxes, latest instance being the richest country of the world — the US — having persistent fiscal deficit! This is puzzling to the general public. At home in India, the volume of foreign exchange reserves exceeds the value of our external debt. Likewise, even as the food godowns overflow with millions of tonnes of grains, there are vast sections of masses below poverty line, not adequately fed. How? Are the economists solely to blame for all this? No.

The phenomena that are relevant to the study of economics and the forces that affect the economic issues are not only far too many, but often unexpected also. Failure of monsoons, sudden outbreak of some new viral diseases, natural disasters upset economists' calculations. Even poll forecasts sway sentiments in financial markets!

Interestingly enough, the currency of China (a nation ideologically opposed to the US) is pegged to the American dollar and even as the US wants the yuan to be revalued (upward from the existing exchange rate), China is an amused spectator of its currency playing havoc to the US economy — a number of exported Chinese consumer goods being cheaper in the US than those of the US itself.

Shouldn't it be a matter of pride and joy to the Indians that their currency is appreciating in value vis-à-vis the supreme dollar? Strangely, the opinion is sharply divided, and there are sections, exporters in particular, who almost lament!

``Vile, thy name is woman.'' Parodying Shakespeare, can we say "Ambivalence, thy name is Economics?"

K. Gopalan