• Investment World
• eWorld
• Catalyst
• Mentor
• Life
• Canvas
• Praxis
• Urban Pulse
• Brand Quest

Rasheeda Bhagat

in Colombo

"THE air you breathe in Colombo is different these days. Just look at all those vehicles passing down the road (Colombo's Galle Face Road) even after 10 p.m. The other day I thought I was in Chennai or Delhi, seeing so many vehicles on the roads after 11 p.m. on a Saturday night," says an enthused Prof Jayadeva Uyangoda, Head of the Department of Political Science in Colombo University.

He is one of a strong group of Colombo's intelligentsia that is looking positively at the ongoing peace process, in which the Sri Lankan Government and the LTTE are the principal negotiators. The process is still very fragile and can be shattered easily. And it is here that the group is divided. Some think that the LTTE's periodic violations of the ceasefire, and recent incidents such as the interception of an LTTE vessel carrying arms, and the attack on a Sri Lankan naval vessel ferrying soldiers (which the LTTE has denied) can derail the process. But others differ.

Prof Uyangoda does not think such incidents will change anything . "It is known that the LTTE has been importing weapons. And there is no reason for the LTTE to stop importing weapons, as there is no guarantee yet from the Sri Lankan government on a political settlement. At the moment they are just talking." The professor does believe that a political settlement of the long-raging conflict is quite a while away. "I don't think the Sinhala political leadership has as yet communicated a message to the LTTE that it is ready to do business. The Sinhala political set-up is still divided, with only one section ready to even talk to the LTTE.

The other section, including the PA-JVP, still considers the LTTE an untouchable entity. So, from the LTTE's point of view, there is no reason why it should trust the Sinhala political leadership." So, as the political settlement is seen as being far away, people like Prof Uyangoda are advocating that other processes, such as rehabilitation, reconstruction and de-escalation, can begin right away.

But Ms Dushni Weerakoon, a Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies, says her concern is that a year into the peace process "we have nothing as yet on substantive issues. We are concentrating more on the development efforts for the north and the east, but have not really come to concrete proposals that the government can place before the Parliament or the people. That will be the most difficult phase; and the difficulties still lie ahead of us."

The difficult aspects yet to be tackled include the LTTE's running an almost parallel administration in the north and the east in terms of collecting its own taxes, having its own legal and judicial system and, above all, having an army of its own. On the last aspect, she says: "This has been pointed out again and again by observers, but the LTTE is not willing to commit to handing over of weapons."

Prof W. D. Lakshman, former Vice-Chancellor and Professor of Economics at Colombo University, says that though he is one of those who is very positive on the peace process, he has concerns on the way the economy and economic policies are being handled.

"We are critical of the neo-liberal policies dictated by financial organisations such as the World Bank — what well-known economists like Prof Jagdish Bhagwati have referred to as the `IMF-World Bank-US Treasury Complex', and are wary of the excessive financial liberalisation and how it had adversely affected the East Asian economies." But, then, the "strong economic opinion" is coming from institutions that are backing up that view with money. "Two days ago $800 million was allocated for Sri Lanka by the World Bank, and that is a huge sum." The terms dictated by such largesse, and the large dose of economic liberalisation, can seriously affect the stability of a country like Sri Lanka he feels, as it has sectors — such as agriculture and export-oriented industries — which still need protection or special treatment.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Sri Lankan President, Ms Chandrika Kumaratunga, forced into an uneasy co-habitation with the Wickremesinghe Government, is watching like a hawk the progress of the peace process and waiting for the Government to make one wrong step.

As her senior adviser on foreign affairs and former Foreign Minister, Mr Lakshman Kadirgamar, pointed out to Business Line in an interview: "As head of the government and commander in chief of the armed forces, she could hardly be expected to see the armed forces undermined as the LTTE violates terms of the MoU with impunity, continuing to bring in weapons and violating the ceasefire agreement. She cannot afford to keep quiet for too long while all this goes on." .

After all, she does hold the executive powers to dismiss the government and, according to a political analyst in Colombo believed to be close to her, is already consulting astrologers on the right time to strike a blow. Mr Kadirgamar also said that one of her recent achievements was to bring the JVP to the point of view that a peace process is necessary and "in a couple of days, the JVP will give a significant statement saying that it is for peace. This, you must agree, is a big achievement."

The LTTE political ideologue, Mr Anton Balasingham, recently said that irrespective of the political party which heads any Sri Lankan government, its commitment to the peace negotiations will continue. This is also seen as a significant statement in Colombo.

As Prof Uyangoda points out, it will now be very difficult to derail the peace process because "this process has been thoroughly internationalised and gone beyond the principal antagonists — the Government and the LTTE. They remain the principal actors but both the process as well as its outcome are beyond their exclusive control."

Though the peace process continues to be "unpredictable, within that unpredictability both the government and the LTTE as well as the Norwegians have been able to create some kind of public confidence. The public mood, at least in the south, is relaxed, and I find a qualitative transformation in the peoples' attitude that neither the LTTE nor the government can disregard."

It is precisely this "relaxed public mood" that the Ranil Government wants to cash in on, as is evident from the announcement of the Cabinet spokesman, Prof G. L. Peiris, on Thursday, that the Sri Lankan Government is mulling the holding of a referendum on the peace process.

Such a demand, he said, had come in from "religious leaders, scholars, professionals and university lecturers". An attempt by the Ranil Government to checkmate any action the President might be contemplating?

(Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in)

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication

Stories in this Section
Going in circles

Copyright © 2003, The Hindu Business Line. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu Business Line