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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Dec 19

The Southern peninsula will receive scattered rainfall over the next 2-3 days from an approaching easterly wave bearing the signature of storms rolling down the western Pacific over the past few days.

Rain/thundershowers are likely at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Lakshadweep, and isolated over Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka.

Model predictions also show an elongated trough from the western Pacific stretching into the Arabian Sea getting accentuated around Christmas time.

The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) agree on this.

It is likely that this will trigger a wet session that could extend into the dawn of the New Year. North-eastern Sri Lanka, southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala fall within the footprint of the trough.

In the north, an India-bound western disturbance is lying in wait over north Pakistan. It is likely to modulate weather over north-west India and parts of adjoining plains from Wednesday.

Fairly widespread, at times heavy, snowfall/rainfall is likely over the hilly region of western Himalayas for at least three days from Wednesday. Punjab and Haryana are also likely to receive scattered rainfall during this period. Fog conditions are likely to develop over some parts of these regions.

The system is predicted to trigger snowfall along the hills of Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal, promising a treat for holidaymakers. The snowfall is expected to spill over into the next two days, according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology.

MERCURY LEVEL

The `steaming' head of the western disturbance will cause night temperatures over northwest India and adjoining Gangetic plains to rise by 2-3 degrees C over the next two days.

This is because the convective cloudiness in the front traps solar radiation. But the temperatures are seen falling steeply by 4-5 degrees C with the passage of the system to the east. This is because the prevailing winds turn westerly to north-westerly, bringing cold air into play over the plains.

Rainfall statistics till December 13 showed that the north-east monsoon was `excess' or `normal' in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry except in the two districts of Krishnagiri and Perambalur, where it was deficient.

As for Kerala and Lakshadweep, all districts except Wayanad recorded excess or normal rainfall during the season, which is in the last phase now.

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