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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Dec. 11

Prevailing winds over the wheat-growing plains of north-west India are forecast to turn northerly to north-westerly from Tuesday, triggering cold wave conditions in the region.

The India Meteorological Department has even mounted a ground frost alert in some parts of Punjab, Haryana and north Rajasthan where night temperatures are seen dipping to or below a threshold limit of four degree Celsius.

LONG DUE

The approaching chill is likely to be favourably viewed by farmers, and had become long due given that the early sowing got completed by mid-November. Prevailing temperatures have been holding disconcertingly high ever since, what with steering winds blowing stubbornly from a south to southwest direction.

The favourable shift in the direction from which the steering winds blow happens with the passage of a western disturbance to the east of the country. The rear of the system is marked by large-scale "subsidence" which forces cold air to virtually `sit' over the region.

But a ground frost alert need not always mean good tidings for farmers. This is because a `hard freeze' could kill plants. Frost could damage the leaf tissue, reducing photosynthesis, increasing foliar disease potential.

FALL IN MERCURY

According to IMD outlook, night temperatures are likely to fall by 3-5 degree Celsius over the plains for at least three days from Tuesday. The prevailing cold wave conditions over southwest Rajasthan will likely extend into Punjab, Haryana and more parts of Rajasthan.

On Monday, the lowest night temperature in the plains of the country was 4.4° Celsius recorded at Ludhiana. Light to moderate snowfall has been reported from a few places over the western Himalayan region during the past 24 hours.

SNOW, RAIN

Isolated snowfall is likely over western Himalayan region during the next 24 hours. Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, while it will be isolated over Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh.

With the likely eastward movement of a prevailing western disturbance, snowfall activity is likely to cease from Tuesday onwards.

Meanwhile, a feeble western disturbance is likely to cross into western Himalayan region on Thursday. This `approach phase' will bring cloudiness associated with the system into play, and cause night temperatures to perk up by 2-3 degree Celsius over the plains of northwest India.

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