The Hindu Business Line : Brewing low pressure in Bay `notified'

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has officially notified the possibility of a low pressure forming in the Bay of Bengal (Andaman Sea) around December 7.

This is the first time the country's medium range forecaster has taken note of the buzz in the Bay, which has for some days been debated by advanced international weather models, notably the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

DURIAN REMNANT

The `low' is to drift in from across the country's territorial waters from a weakened typhoon Durian making a landfall on the Vietnamese coast within three days from now. Durian is now negotiating the South China Sea, after having crossed the Philippine archipelago as a Category 4 super typhoon.

Once settled over the Bay, the remnant of Durian is expected to play an important role in re-activating the northeast monsoon. Unlike during the last year, the Bay has not played host to a single `low'/depression passing in from the east.

ADVANCE `LOW'

According to the ECMWF, a preparatory, broad-sized trough of low is forecast to settle over the Bay in anticipation of the advancing Durian remnant. On Friday, it maintained its outlook on the `low' spinning into shape over the Andaman Sea by December 7.

The low pressure is then predicted to move almost in a line straight to the west, and slide into the central Bay waters on December 9. It will possibly undergo a round of intensification there, before heading into the southwest Bay.

LANDFALL DATE

After moving further west, the system is seen eying the North Tamil Nadu-south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast, and would intensify once again before making a landfall by December 11.

But this copybook-style course is something that bears watching out, since any large-amplitude upper level westerly system coming in from the northwest of the country can intervene and upset it.

DURIAN POSER

In fact, Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com has already raised the question whether Durian would hold together as a serious storm that goes on to strike Vietnam.

According to him, the presence of a stabilising northeast monsoon (much ahead of the Bay) in the South China Sea bodes against this happening.

MERCURY DIPS

Meanwhile in the north, the mercury touched a new low of 3.2 deg C at Adampur in Punjab on Thursday night. The NCMRWF says the northwest is likely to be affected by a western disturbance from Sunday, which will bring enhanced snowfall activity over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal.

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