The Hindu Business Line : Easterly waves sustain rainfall in peninsula

Passing easterly waves continue to generate intermittent rainfall over the southern peninsula and indications are that this would be the broad weather pattern as the northeast monsoon progresses.

This is in line with the "long-range" predictions made by individual climate experts.

According to Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology, this is the best possible weather the farmers in the south could have asked for.

Violent weather "is a given" in the Bay during the season, but there was no indication yet of one brewing anytime soon, said Mr J. V. Singh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

The Head Bay, the breeding ground for most of these systems, continues to be cooler than normal under the effect of the ongoing precipitation.

`LOW' SEEN

The seawaters will have to warm beyond a threshold level to breed storms.

The south-central Bay holds some warmth, even prompting some weather models to forecast a "low" by November 12. But this would need to be confirmed, Mr Singh said.

Both the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have predicted above normal rainfall for the peninsula at least till the end of November during the ongoing season.

But neither of them attributes this so much to any big weather system as to the benign influence of an El Nino in the equatorial Pacific.

India's southeast coast will get good rainfall, but not necessarily from depressions/cyclones, Mr Tony Barnston, Director with IRI, had told Business Line earlier.

In its update, the NCMRWF said on Monday that model predictions suggest that an easterly wave is likely to be active over the region.

The ongoing rainfall over the south peninsula is likely to enhance with isolated heavy rains along east coast in the next 3-4 days.

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