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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Oct. 29

The hyperactive `low' over the southwest Bay of Bengal off the Tamil Nadu coast spun fast into a depression while moving northward on Sunday, but seems to have stopped on its tracks, according to reports coming in late in the evening.

It could possibly linger in that position for another day, which means that the southeast coast may be heading for a fresh round of torrential downpour, said Dr K. J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology.

RECEIVING END

The southern peninsula has been at the receiving end over the past few days with a trough in the upper westerlies in cahoots with a resident system in the lower level easterlies. This is a potent combination that can drive up rainfall over the wall, throwing up cloudburst-like conditions.

This scenario is now seen to hold for another day with the upper-level trough stagnating, in turn leading the rain belt also stay put.

The larger causative system seems to have moved as a whole northward. Coastal Andhra Pradesh will now bear the brunt of the rain fury.

CLOUD LEVELS

The low and medium clouds associated with the system (unlike the towering cloud formations associated with deep convection) ensured that a much larger area was brought under rain cover.

Deep convection is typically accompanied by pronounced thunder and lightning activity, but the footprint of ensuing rainfall is comparatively much small.

WIDESPREAD RAIN

An India Meteorological Department forecast said that the depression might cross the Andhra Pradesh coast `sometime during Sunday night' itself. Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls is likely at a few places over north Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next 24 hours.

Squally winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph are also likely along and off the Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts during the next 24 hrs.

The sea condition will be rough to very rough.

MAY LAST LONGER

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com says that the threat of heavy to excessive rain will hang around for another three to five days.

There is no good indication of a tropical cyclone just yet, but he wouldn't straight away rule out one.

The National Centre for Medium Range weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) doubted that the depression might just intensify before crossing the Andhra Pradesh coast.

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Rain belt moves north, may linger

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