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Vinson Kurian

Likely to cross Orissa coast

Thiruvananthapuram , Sept 28

The low-pressure area over east central and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal became well marked on Thursday, despite a major part of the bifurcated westerly flow bypassing it to the south.

This flow was in turn directed towards Typhoon Xangsane in the western Pacific.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said the well marked `low' in the Bay is likely to concentrate into a depression, move west-northwest and cross the Orissa coast within the next two days.

RAINS IN EAST

Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal during the next 24 hours.

Enhanced rainfall activity is likely to extend later into north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology said the depression would cause widespread rain to fall along the familiar Orissa-Gujarat course. The weakening system would end up probably as a `low' over south Konkan.

REMOTE CHANCE

But there is only a remote chance that the system survives long enough to slide into the Arabian Sea and re-intensify. This is because there is hardly any moisture available over land to hold the `low' together.

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com has noticed widespread monsoon cloudiness associated with the new system, and southward to the Equator. It will increase rain coverage and intensity from the southeast beginning Thursday or Friday.

There is the possibility of this depression holding together right across the northern peninsula, and eventually draw rains up to the coast of Maharashtra.

FRESH FLOW LIKELY

According to Dr Gupta, there are indications of a strong westerly flow building to the south of Sri Lanka after October 1. Kerala and southern Tamil Nadu are also expected to benefit from the ensuing wet session.

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