The Hindu Business Line : New `low' forecast as monsoon holds strong

The ongoing active phase of the monsoon in central and peninsular region is seen holding for the next five days even as Friday's deep depression weakened into a depression on Saturday, and further into a well marked `low' over southwest Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood on Sunday.

The favourable outlook for monsoon draws mainly on the available moisture feed and the `push' effect of a suddenly warming western Pacific, which portends a cascading impact on the Bay of Bengal, among the nearest water bodies.

NEW `LOW'

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has predicted that a yet another `low' is poised to take shape over the Bay as early as by the weekend.

An earlier forecast for the `low' had been downgraded but a string of three tropical cyclones parading the western Pacific waters and carrying names of Bopha, Maria and Saomai, has overnight charged up the environment immediately east of the Bay.

REMNANT LIKELY

All three systems are headed northwest, and held up one end of the monsoon-driving inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). A remnant from the threesome is predicted to likely cross into the Bay and set up the next `low', which should naturally be headed west-northwest into the mainland.

Forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EMCWF) tended to depict it a strong system sweeping the country's east coast before foraying into Central India.

WIDESPREAD RAIN

Meanwhile, the well marked `low' over southwest Madhya Pradesh is likely to move further west-northwest and weaken gradually. Widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Marathwada, north madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa and the Gujarat region during the next 48 hours.

Isolated heavy to very falls are also likely over west Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan while it will be isolated heavy over Saurashtra, Kutch, south madhya Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka, north interior Karnataka, north Telangana and Vidarbha during the three days.

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