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Vinson Kurian

Monsoon may be in an `active to vigorous state'

Thiruvananthapuram , July 28

The fresh `low' in the Bay of Bengal basin beat forecasts to get organised on Thursday night itself, intensified into a well-marked `low' on Friday, and is well on its way to become a depression, the second of the season.

An update from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said on Friday that the `low' had taken shape over the Northwest Bay off the North Orissa-West Bengal coast and was seen persisting.

Moving west

It will keep moving in a west-northwesterly direction even as it intensifies. Under its influence, the ongoing rainfall activity over Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telengana will enhance during the next two to three days. It will then extend over to Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.

Model predictions also suggest the formation of a cyclonic circulation in the middle troposphere over Gujarat and adjoining North-East Arabian Sea within the next 24 hours. Under the combined effect of the two systems, the monsoon is likely to be in an `active to vigorous state' from Orissa to farther west in Gujarat during the next four to five days, the NCMRWF said.

Welcome rain

According to Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology, the westward progression of the system will bring much needed rain into North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, Marathwada and East and West Madhya Pradesh. Rainfall deficits in most of these areas should get wiped out in the process, at least from a purely arithmetical point of view.

The familiar combine of an incoming active monsoon system and a mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation throws up once again the possibility of drenching rain along the West Coast, especially North Konkan (including Mumbai). "The signals are there; it's for the civic authorities to sit up and take notice," Dr Gupta said. There are indications that yet another `low' may form in the Bay of Bengal basin next week itself, he added.

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`Low' beats forecasts, intensifies rapidly

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