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Monsoon in deficit but may rev up in medium term

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Thiruvananthapuram , July 23

Things look up on the monsoon front even as recorded rainfall estimates have totted up a deficit of 14 per cent up till the 19th of the crucial month of July.

But an existing `low' over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan coupled with the prospect of another fresh one predicted to develop during the next week goes to ensure a wetter last week for July that might spill into early August.

Widespread rain

A forecast by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy showers are likely over west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, east Rajasthan, Konkan, Goa (including Mumbai) and madhya Maharashtra in the next two days.

Model predictions also suggest that the monsoon trough is likely to stay south of its normal alignment during the next two to three days. This will lead to a reduction in rainfall activity over the Indo-Gangetic plains and the northeastern States but will give a corresponding boost to the session over Central and Peninsular India.

A fresh `low' has been predicted to take shape over the Northwest Bay of Bengal by July 28. This is expected to intensify and enhance the rainfall activity over Orissa, West Bengal and Jharkhand.


In its agro advisory, the NCMRWF said that in view of the ongoing as well as forecast rainfall, farmers in Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha are advised to take up transplanting of paddy seedlings.

Sowing of groundnut, soyabean and pulses such as arhar, moong and urad can be taken up in Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat and east Rajasthan where isolated heavy to very heavy rain has been forecast.

Light rainfall is predicted for east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Northeast and northwest India, where farmers are advised to complete the transplanting of paddy seedlings. A similar course may be followed in the case of nursery plants of vegetables such as tomato, brinjal and cauliflower.

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