• Investment World
• eWorld
• Brand Line
• Mentor
• Life
• Canvas
• Praxis
• Urban Pulse
• Brand Quest
• The New Manager

Stocks

• Quotes
• SE Diary
• Scoreboard
• Open-End Mutual Fund

Cross Currency

• Rates
  
  

Shipping

• Ports
  
  

Archives

• Yesterday
• Datewise
• Resources
• In Focus
• In Depth

Group Sites

• The Hindu
• Business Line
• Sportstar
• Frontline
• The Hindu eBooks
• The Hindu Images

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , July 9

The southwest monsoon arrived in Delhi on Sunday, 10 days behind schedule even as the Bay of Bengal threw up early indications of a second seasonal `low' forming by the weekend.

NO WEAK PHASE YET

This would take place with easterlies from the Bay of Bengal interacting with an incoming western disturbance. The onset in Delhi, forecast for progress further into the northwest and indications of a fresh `low' would all go to defer a `weak phase' the monsoon was supposed to go into, Dr Gupta told Business Line on Sunday.

The `extreme precipitation probability' model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said there is 70 to 80 per cent chance of the new Bay system generating heavy rainfall in east and peninsular India. It would be much weaker in intensity than predecessor 03B, which had crossed land with cyclonic strength.

TO MOVE SWIFTLY

Predicted to form tentatively on July 14/15 (Friday/Saturday), the fresh system would move swiftly over land, spinning into the Orissa coast and pacing through Chhattisgarh and later Central India on successive days, Dr Gupta said. The moisture-laden monsoon easterlies would penetrate the eastern and northern regions of the country and drive out the prevailing drier westerlies.

But Dr Gupta said these forecasts would need to be reassessed on a daily basis in order that the confidence levels in the eventuality remain high. The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) of the US Navy also favours the outlook for the `low.'

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said the northern limit of monsoon passed through Udaipur, Gwalior, Agra, Delhi, Ambala and Amritsar on Sunday. Conditions are favourable for its further advance into entire east Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab during the next 48 hours.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Monsoon reaches Delhi

Copyright © 2006, The Hindu Business Line. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu Business Line