The Hindu Business Line : First monsoon `low' likely by early next week

All major weather models are unanimous in their outlook that the Bay of Bengal will witness the formation of a low-pressure area early next week, which has crucial implications for the orderly progress of monsoon into the country's heartland.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the National Centre for Medium Term Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) have indicated this possibility in their weather bulletins on Friday when the quantum of rainfall realised was high and the precipitation uniformly distributed.

Positive signs

According to Dr L.S. Rathore of the NCMRWF, a large slice of the rain belt was parked over the ocean, but there has been a marked northward shift in the position of the belt of high winds. This is a positive sign for the onward progress of monsoon to into the mainland.

Another positive feature was the detection of easterly winds in the Indo-Gangetic plains being driven in by the cyclonic circulation lying in wait over Northwest Bay of Bengal ahead of its transformation as a possible monsoon `low'.

NCMRWF forecast

An NCMRWF forecast said model predictions favoured its formation over Northwest Bay Bengal and the adjoining Orissa coast during June 27/28 (Tuesday/Wednesday next). This will further enhance monsoon activity over the peninsula as well as the eastern parts of the country.

The upper level Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) over the Chennai latitude was still conspicuous by its absence but the easterlies had managed to penetrate the region. The pressure gradient emanating from the `heat low' over West Rajasthan/Gujarat was stabilising in what is another good prospect for the monsoon.

On Friday, the monsoon had advanced into some more parts of Gujarat, remaining parts of Madhya Maharashtra, entire Marathwada and more parts of Telangana and Chhattisgarh. The northern limit passed through Porbandar, Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Jalgaon, Parbhani, Ramagundam, Kanker, Ambikapur, Daltonganj and Raxaul.

Conditions are favourable for its further advance into remaining parts Telangana and more parts of Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh during the next two days. It is likely to advance further and cover entire Chhattisgarh and Bihar, parts of East Madhya Pradesh and East Uttar Pradesh during the next five days.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page