The Hindu Business Line : Population to touch 1.4 billion by 2026

State-wise outlook
TN is expected to have the least growth in these 25 years at 15 per cent, followed by Kerala's 17 per cent.
Delhi will have the highest projected growth of 102 per cent during 2001-2026.
The BIMARU States will continue to have India's teeming millions; UP will be the most populous State.

Chennai , June 14

It's finally official... and comes from the horse's mouth. By 2026, the population of India is projected to touch the 1.4-billion mark.

That is, if we don't take into account the frightening prospect of HIV/AIDS claiming 11-16 million Indian lives in the next 20 years. If this happens, our population will be around 1,384 million.

The increase in 25 years is projected to be 36 per cent - from 1,029 million in 2001 to 1,400 million in 2026.

"As a consequence, the density of population will increase from 313 to 426 persons per sq km," says the report of the technical group of the National Commission on Population.

Male-Female Ratio

But, despite the progress we will certainly make, we're expected to continue with the heinous practice of female foeticide, and the report estimates that the sex ratio will further decline from 933:1000 (women-men) in 2001 to 930:1000 by 2026.

While North India is expected to have a more "masculine population" in terms of the male-female ratio, Delhi will have the dubious distinction of having the lowest sex ratio (789:1000) followed by Haryana (839) and Punjab (840).

Kerala will continue to have more women than men, and Tamil Nadu is expected to have the same number of females to males by 2026.

During this 25-year period, declining fertility levels will mean a decline in the population under 15 years from 35.4 per cent to 23.4 per cent; reducing children in the school-going age of 5-14 years from 243 million in 2001 to 222 million in 2026. But the 15-59 and above 60 age groups will get larger.

Longer life spans will see senior citizens more than doubling "from 71 million in 2001 to 173 million in 2026 - from 6.9 to 12.4 per cent."

The good news is that the working age group, 15-59 years, is expected to rise from 57.7 per cent in 2001 to 64.3 per cent in 2026. The youth population (15-24) is expected to increase from 195 million in 2001 to 240 million in 2011 and then continue to decrease to 224 million in 2026. "Its proportion to total population is expected to fall from 19 per cent in 2001 to 16 per cent in 2026," adds the report.

Interestingly, Tamil Nadu is expected to have the least growth in these 25 years at 15 per cent, followed by Kerala's 17 per cent.

Delhi will have the highest projected growth of 102 per cent during 2001-2026, with States such as Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka expected to grow at between 20-30 per cent.

The population in the States of Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh is projected to increase by 40-50 per cent during 2001-2026, above the national average of 36 per cent.

The BIMARU States (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) will continue to have India's teeming millions; Uttar Pradesh will be the most populous State with 249 million people by 2026.

Of the additional 371 million Indians in our population in the quarter century, 187 million, or half of the additional population, will be in the seven States of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Uttar Pradesh will be the clear leader and play host to nearly 22 per cent of the increased population.

The flip side is that Kerala with its finer record in smaller families will have one senior citizen in every six people, while Uttar Pradesh will have a much younger population, with the median age going up from 19 to 29 years.

Some nuggets:

Crude birth rate will decline from 23.2 during 2001-05 to 16 during 2021-25 because of falling level of total fertility.

Infant mortality rate, reported at 63 in 2002, is estimated to decline to 61 during 2001-05, and fall further to 40 by 2025.

Between 2001 and 2026, due to declining fertility, population below 15 years will decline from 35.4 to 23.4 per cent.

The youth population - 15-24 years - is expected to increase from 195 million in 2001 to 240 million in 2011, and then decrease to 224 million in 2026; its proportion to total population will fall from 19 per cent in 2001 to 16 per cent in 2026.