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Wednesday, May 31, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear domination

K. Premkumar

The sentiment reading of the tradable counters turned bearish on Tuesday's trading. Bull domination on Wednesday is likely to reduce the bear pressure to some extent. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened with added counters.

Nifty futures: The June month contract opened around its previous level and steadily went up by 35 points making an intraday high of 3209.50. During later part of day's trading bulls were not able to sustain their move and succumbed to bear pressure. The June month contract moved with in a range of around 108 points. It closed lower by 75 points from yesterday's level.

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Bear pressure on Tuesday terminated the long position in June contract and entered a fresh short position. The short exit and long entry levels are placed far away from its last traded price. It is unlikely to be triggered during Wednesday's trading activity.

Stock futures: The composition of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. However, the ranking of the list had minor changes. Reliance industries moved to the top slot and Satyam Computers went down to ninth position. The top-3 tradable counters in this segment were Reliance, Infosys and TISCO.

The downtrend counters Bajaj Auto and Ranbaxy are likely to be under threat. Both the up trend counters in the top 10 tradable list are likely to be terminated during Wednesday's trading. There are two opportunities on either side of trading. The best bet is likely to exist in Satyam Computers. This counter is in uptrend. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The Composition and ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged.

Both the uptrend counters are under threat for Wednesday's trading. The downtrend counter State Bank is likely to be under threat. Bulls are having opportunity in State Bank and bears are having opportunity in TISCO. The best is likely to be selling in TISCO. This counter is in uptrend. Bear pressure on Wednesday has the potential to reverse the existing trend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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