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Agri-Biz & Commodities - Sugar
States - Maharashtra


The impact on nation's output

Harish Damodaran

New Delhi, May 10

Maharashtra's sugar production touching 69 lakh tonnes (lt) changes the country's overall availability position significantly. The general prognosis till now was that mills in the State would take some time to recover lost ground, whereas it looks as though the turnaround has come much earlier.

In the 2005-06 sugar season (October-September), Uttar Pradesh is expected to produce 58 lt, against Maharashtra's 52 lt and around 20 lt each of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

If one adds to these 12 lt from Andhra Pradesh and about 15 lt of Punjab, Haryana, Uttaranchal and Bihar put together, the total output this season would be in the range of 190 lt.

2006-07 production

With opening stocks of 40 lt and consumption of 190 lt (including five-lt exports), the season will close with the same level of inventories.

During 2006-07, UP mills are likely to churn out an extra 15 lt of sugar. If Maharashtra too adds an equivalent quantity, if not more, and other States retain production at the existing level (not ruled out), domestic production would easily cross 220 lt.

Taking opening stocks of 40 lt and consumption of 200 lt (including 10-lt exports), there will be stocks of 60 lt at the start of the 2007-08 season. That would more than meet 3.5 months domestic requirement and possibly mark the start of the next downswing in the sugar cycle.

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