The Hindu Business Line : The war of the freebies

The battle for Tamil Nadu is being fought with rice and TV sets, as the Kazhagams go on a dole overdrive. Here, a quick measure of the people's pulse, especially vis-à-vis the Vaiko factor and the caste issues. In Tamil Nadu, so mixed is the picture, so conflicting the signals and so confusing the trend that it will be a brave heart who will venture a guess on the outcome.

As the battle for the Tamil Nadu Assembly hots up with politicians and film-stars crossing over to the rival camps — mainly from the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam to the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam — the one constant feature that seems to continue from election to election is that of the freebies promised.

The DMK made a quick start in the race for populism by promising PDS rice at Rs 2 a kg, free colour TV sets for households without one, and land for the landless among the unprivileged sections.

The AIADMK chief, Ms Jayalalithaa, did one better by promising 10 kg of free rice; already a free bicycle scheme for Dalit homes has been implemented. But her trump card, during these difficult times, was the cash dole of Rs 2,000 given to every ration cardholder in the flood-affected areas of Tamil Nadu.

At a recent Rotary Club meeting in Tiruchi, as the members debated which major Kazhagam would occupy the Fort in Chennai, there was all-round appreciation for the masterly stroke of reaching this money "literally at people's doorsteps." "Did you notice how the money was handed out only in Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 denominations so that those disbursing the amount would not siphon off a portion or demand a cut?" he asked.

CONFLICTING SIGNALS

But returning to the larger issue of who will form the next government in Tamil Nadu, so mixed is the picture, so conflicting the signals and so confusing the trend that it will be a brave heart indeed who will venture a guess on the outcome.

It is story of no major anti-incumbency thanks to a fairly decent governance versus the poll arithmetic of the DMK-led alliance, with each member — the DMK, the Congress(I), the Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Left — having a considerable vote bank.

Most people this correspondent spoke to in the Tiruchi-Dindigul belt pointed out that there were no negative issues to strengthen the anti-incumbency factor that the best of governments have to contend with in any election. One was surprised by the constant refrain that the AIADMK Government had done a decent job of containing caste clashes that had torn the social fabric of the region during the past. This belt is notorious for the Dalit-Thevar clashes, "but the Government did a good job of ensuring that these did not erupt, disturbing the peace in our villages," says Manickam, a farm worker in a village near Tiruchi. There is also appreciation for "a good law and order situation."

A businessman in Dindigul is happy that there "is no undue extortion from us; and even if they collect, they get things done," he says with a smile; a clear indication that these are good times for his business.

But hardcore loyalists of the DMK and its allies had any number of grievances against the AIADMK regime and complained of corruption and inefficiencies.

The story has to be related of a relative of a DMK leader in Tiruchi, who reportedly told his fellow Rotarians recently: "If I'm to speak the truth, for businessmen like us, irrespective of our party affiliation, an AIADMK government is good for us." Interpret this as you will! But one segment that is still unhappy with the AIADMK is the government staff.

Despite the restoration of their pay and perks, the feeling you get is one of a group "that taught Ms Jayalalithaa a lesson in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, and will teach her one more this time," as pointed out by Vasantha, a government teacher in this region.

Vaiko loses credibility

But what came as a surprise was the unanimous and vehement sentiment against the MDMK (Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) leader, Mr Vaiko, who has joined the AIADMK front. Mr Vaiko joining hands with Ms Jayalalithaa, who had incarcerated him for 19 long months under POTA, is seen as a dishonourable act.

"His credibility is totally destroyed," is the common refrain. What has hurt Mr Vaiko's prospects even more is the presence in the fray of the Desiya Murpokku Dravidar Kazhagam's Vijaykanth, who is considered a "decent and honourable" alternative by those voters who are tired of both the DMK and the AIADMK and are looking for a credible alternative.

`Captain,' as Vijaykanth is popularly known, is seen as a sincere and down-to-earth leader and in a place like Tamil Nadu, his film background should help bring stars in the eyes of the people, especially women, when they talk about "giving him a chance."

But while Mr Vaiko may have lost credibility among the people, for Ms Jayalalithaa he is a prize catch. Whether he will fetch votes for her side remains to be seen, but as of now, she can afford to step back and tone down personal attacks on the Karunanidhi-Maran family as Mr Vaiko is doing more than his bit. And Mr Vaiko is not sparing the AIADMK's other pet peeve either — the Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, attacking him for criticising subsidies on the one hand but going along with the DMK's free colour TV promise, on the other!

NO PEOPLE'S COMPLAINTS

What is a new to this election is there aren't too many complaints from ordinary people; distress levels are down and its heartening to see that at least the echoes of a booming economy have reached the smaller towns and villages — crucial if the entire country, and not just the IT/ITES-powered metros, is to march forward.

While the gullible and the downtrodden will continue to be swayed by promises of freebies and populist schemes — the former BJP President, Mr Venkaiah Naidu, made a sensible comment when he suggested on Tuesday that all political parties should sit down and have a discussion on promise of freebies during elections and how toilets and schools were more important than colour TVs — there are some signs of change.

Youthful optimism

At Murugan Stores, a kirana shop on the outskirts of Tiruchi, that is doing booming business, 24-year-old Gopinath dreams more than cornering a free colour TV should the DMK come to power. He has completed his M.Sc in Computer Science from the Bharathidasan University and is waiting for the paperwork to be completed to pursue a job in Canada. "Two of my friends are there and have assured me that they will soon find me a job too; they say there is demand for computer engineers like me there."

But meanwhile has he applied for a job here? "No, I've decided I want to work in a foreign country for at least a few years." But has he not tried to find a job in world class Indian IT companies such as Infosys, TCS, Wipro or Satyam?

"No, I know they are good companies. But nobody from my family has gone to a foreign country. In fact, I was the first in my family to become a graduate; my father has only passed Standard VIII. I have the required skills and confidence, and till I find a job in Canada, I'm helping my father in this shop where the daily sale exceeds Rs 4,000. I'm sure one day I'll come back and start my own business in computers, but before that I have to get some exposure to the world outside India."

The stars in his eyes, the hope in his heart and the confidence in his tone are powerful enough to lift your spirits.

And you drive away from his shop with the optimism that as India produces more youngsters like him who want to go out and conquer the world, the importance of our politicians and their populist schemes and freebies will diminish, election after election.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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