The Hindu Business Line : IMD sees monsoon just below normal

The India Meteorological Department has said in its long-range forecast that the 2006 southwest monsoon is likely to be 93 per cent of the long period average, or just below normal.

Rainfall for the country as a whole will be 93 per cent of normal, with a model error of plus or minus five per cent, the IMD said in its first stage forecast for this year's monsoon.

Last year saw monsoon performing normal, as was correctly predicted by the IMD.

Estimates suggest that the probability for the 2006 season rainfall over the country as a whole being `deficient' (or below 90 per cent of normal) is only 22 per cent, said Mr B. Lal, Director-General, IMD.

The update for the above forecasts will be issued by the first week of July, which will also include forecast for the July rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four broad homogeneous regions of India.

Weak La Nina

The IMD has also predicted near neutral conditions over the Equatorial Pacific. The weak El Nino conditions that prevailed in 2004 abruptly ended in the first half of 2005. Sea surface temperatures were close to normal over the equatorial Pacific region during the second half of 2005, which became colder, suggesting weak La Nina conditions early this year.

However, during the past two months, the Equatorial Pacific region has warmed up again to return to near neutral conditions. A majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts indicate higher probability (around 65 per cent) for near neutral conditions to prevail over the equatorial Pacific during the monsoon season.

But the March-June period is typically the most difficult period to correctly assess an El Nino or its reverse, La Nina. Typically, La Nina conditions have been seen aiding the prospects of a concurrent Indian monsoon.

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