The Hindu Business Line : Back-up showers stir up coffee growers' hopes

Hot & cold
Robusta production could gain on good back-up showers
Arabica continues to face problem of pest
Farmgate prices down sharply from levels seen early this year

Chennnai , April 5

WITH the growing areas receiving back-up showers, the coffee crop next season starting October is expected to be good. The robusta crop, in particular, is expected to benefit from these showers.

"Usually, the back-up showers have to hit the growing areas within 3-4 weeks of the pre-monsoon showers. But in some areas, it has come within two weeks, which is a good sign," said Mr Bose Mandanna, former vice-president of the Coffee Board and a grower himself.

But still, a few areas remain to be covered by the back-up showers and any failure could lead to drop of the plants bud or pin-heads.

According to Mr Ramesh Rajah, President of the Coffee Exporters Association of India, there was every chance that the crop could be good next season in view of the timely showers.

Too early

However, it is too early to make any estimate on the size of the crop next season.

During the current season, the Coffee Board has estimated the production at 2.81 lakh tonnes. Of this, arabica has been projected to be 98,500 tonnes and robusta the rest. The estimated output is against last season's output of 2.75 lakh tonnes.

"We have seen good blossom in robustas and most of areas where it is grown have received good back-up showers. Therefore, we feel we could see a good robusta crop this year," Mr Mandanna said.

"Arabica, however, is turning out to be a losing proposition. Pest attack on the crop continues and on a daily basis, we are removing 20-30 plants per acre," he said.

Arabica arrivals lower

Meanwhile, arrivals of the current crop continue with arabica turning out to be lower than expected. Robusta arrivals, in contrast, are higher than estimates.

"Arabica continues to disappoint," said Mr Rajah. "While arabica harvest is totally over, that of robusta is almost over," he said.

However, growers are holding on to stocks in the hope that they would get good prices.

"Prices in the global market continue to decline despite tight supplies. Growers are looking for better offers and some of them are holding on to the stocks," Mr Mandanna said.

"There is buying at lower levels in robusta, where we are seeing renewed interest. But in the case of arabicas, we are witnessing limited offers and buyers," Mr Rajah said.

Export scenario

According to the Coffee Board, permits for exports issued between January 1 and April 4 this year are up at 56,628 tonnes against 56,384 tonnes during the same period a year ago. But 32,536 tonnes of shipments have been confirmed during the period against 53,270 tonnes.

At the farmgate level, prices for arabica parchment have slid to 3,900, 4,025 for a 50-kg bag from a high of Rs 4,600 witnessed during the last week of January. Prices for arabica cherry have slid to Rs 1,225-50 a bag from a high of Rs 1,600.

In the global market, arabica for most active May delivery have slid to 107.05 cents a pound from a high of 124 cents touched on January 23, while robusta for May delivery have slid to $1,109 a tonne from a peak of $1,300 a tonne. In fact, prices rebounded on Wednesday on fears that Brazil might prune its coffee output estimates to 40 million bags of 50-kg due to dry weather.

With summer approaching in the West, and Brazil's crop of 42 million bags of 60-kg around the corner, the market is expected to be under pressure, especially with demand being weak, according to analysts.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Coffee

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page