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Saturday, Mar 25, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull domination

K. Premkumar

Bulls dominated over Friday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters changed to bullish. Bear domination on Monday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

Nifty futures: The March month contract opened with a bear gap of around eight points. However, bears were not able to sustain their initial move and left way to bulls. It moved within a range of around 53 points making an intra-day high of 3284.

March contract closed with a gain of around 44 points from its previous close.

The long position in the March month contract is intact. The long exit and short entry levels are placed quite far away from its last traded price.

In the normal course of trading, these levels are unlikely to be triggered during Monday.

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Stock futures: The composition of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. However, the ranking of the list had minor changes. State Bank got to the fourth position pushing down Maruti and ACC to fifth and sixth positions respectively. The top-three tradable counters in this segment were Tata Steel, State Bank and Hindalco. All the counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be terminated during Monday's trading. There are four opportunities on the buy side and ample opportunities on the sell side.

The best is likely to be selling in ACC. Bear move on Monday is likely to trigger the downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. However, the ranking of the list had minor changes. Hind Lever and Satyam Computer interchanged their positions.

All the uptrend counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Monday's trading. On the other hand, three downtrend counters are likely to be terminated.

There are three opportunities on the buy side and five opportunities on the sell side. The best is likely to be selling in State Bank. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to reverse the existing trend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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