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Climate & Weather
La Nina indicators neutral: Forecast
Our Bureau
Thiruvananthapuram
,
March 8
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has assessed that key El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators in the equatorial Pacific region have lately tended to remain mixed, with some suggesting neutral conditions and others typical of a weak La Nina event.
An ENSO warm phase represents El Nino while an ENSO cold phase represents La Nina. The BoM predictions have been proffered with a caveat that March to June is the period when the ability to predict future ENSO conditions is at its lowest.
The bureau picked neutral ENSO indicators in weaker trade winds near the dateline, trends in central Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is near zero.
METHODOLOGY
The SOI is calculated from the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.
Sustained negative values of the SOI often indicate El Nino episodes. But positive values are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and warmer sea temperatures to the north of Australia signifying a typical La Nina event.
The pattern of below to much-below average cloudiness in the region around the equatorial dateline since November continued until a brief period of above average cloudiness in early February.
Conditions have since returned to below average. This situation is typical of a weak La Nina, the bureau said.
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