Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Friday, Feb 24, 2006
Agri-Biz & Commodities - Commodities
Markets are peaking out, says expert Turns cautious on Indian equities, bets on commodities
MR JIM ROGERS
Mumbai , Feb 23
Someday the bull market has to come to an end." This is the word of caution from Wall Street legend and renowned investment guru, Mr Jim Rogers.
And signals are that the markets are peaking out, he told investors at a meeting organised by local brokerage, Anand Rathi Securities Ltd, on Wednesday evening.
"When you drive from Mumbai airport, almost all the billboards tell you to buy stocks. Every company seems to be selling shares through IPOs now. Mumbai streets are flooded with foreigners looking to buy stocks. This is not normal. I can tell you this doesn't happen at the bottom. It happens usually at the top."
Stating that he was cautious about the Indian stock markets, Mr Rogers - who co-founded the Quantum Fund along with billionaire investor, Mr George Soros, in 1968 - said that he sold his shares in the Indian stock markets recently.
So what is he now bullish on? Mr Rogers said that he is bullish on agri-commodities, base metals, and gold. Sugar, according to him, can quadruple in coming years.
Asked to give hot tips on five commodities, Mr Rogers, whose portfolio gained by 4,200 per cent in 10 years from 1968 (S&P rose less than 50 per cent during the same period), recommended sugar, copper, zinc, gold, and crude.
Even commodities like cotton and maize are a good long-term bet, he added.
"I'm optimistic on cotton, which is trading at 50 per cent below its all-time high."
Comparing gold and agri-commodities, he said that one can make more money in agriculture than from gold.
"Meanwhile, I continue to hold my gold," he hastened to add.
On tobacco and tea, he said these two commodities suffered from the lack of an organised futures market.
According to him, tea also has the potential to give good returns.
On the biggest risk in the Indian commodities market, Mr Rogers was quick to say: "Indian Government."
The Government, after opening up the futures trading in several commodities through the commodities exchanges, should "take the next step to allow foreign investors in commodities."
Stories in this Section
The Hindu Group: Home | About Us | Copyright | Archives | Contacts | Subscription
Group Sites: The Hindu | Business Line | Sportstar | Frontline | The Hindu eBooks | The Hindu Images | Home |
Copyright © 2006, The
Hindu Business Line. Republication or redissemination of the contents of
this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of
The Hindu Business Line