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Tuesday, Jan 17, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

MONDAY'S market witnessed a volatile movement. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters turned bearish. Bull domination on Tuesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened with additional counters.

Nifty futures: The January month contract opened with a bear gap of around 9 points. It moved with in a range of around 36 points making an intraday low of 2802.20. It closed with a loss of around 1 point from its previous close.

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The short position in the January contract remains intact. The exit and buy levels are placed quite far away. In the normal course of trading during Tuesday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock futures: The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. All the positions in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Tuesday's trading.

Three selling opportunities are likely to exist in Ranbaxy, ONGC and Reliance. There are ample opportunities on the buy side. Tuesday's best is likely to be buying in Tata Motors. This counter is in down trend. Bull move on Tuesday is likely to reverse the prevailing trend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. However, the ranking of the list had minor changes. Reliance Industries and Reliance Capital interchanged their positions. Infosys and Titan interchanged their positions. Satyam and State Bank interchanged their positions.

There are no up trend counters in the list. Seven down trend counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Tuesday's trading. There are ample buying opportunities for Tuesday's trading.

The best bet for Tuesday's trading is likely to be buying in State Bank. This counter is in down trend. Bull move during Tuesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in State Bank.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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