The Hindu Business Line : Minimalist Ministerial

THE BIGGEST SUCCESS of the Hong Kong WTO Ministerial is that it has been able to produce a unanimous Declaration which reflects, apart from anything else, a strong desire among all members of the World Trade Organisation not to sacrifice the Doha Round at the altar of narrow national economic interests. What this augurs for international trade liberalisation is, of course, anyone's guess, but at least it can be said that, at this juncture, the need to continue with the process under the WTO auspices has been given more importance than the route of regional arrangements and free-trade agreements.

Having said this, the point will have to be emphasised that the Declaration has practically nothing for the developing economies. This is disappointing considering the demands made by the bloc in the run-up to the meeting. Among other things, it was repeatedly said that the key to the Ministerial was agriculture and its success would be decided on whether the developing countries extract their pound of flesh in the sector vis-à-vis the developed economies (notably the EU and the US), specifically in the areas of export subsidy, domestic support and market access. Nothing of note was achieved in any of these areas; this can be interpreted as a victory for the developed economies.

Indeed, much is made of the fact that 2013 has been set as a deadline for the elimination of all offending farm export subsidies in the West. Not only wasthe choice of the year made by the EU for its convenience (the developing countries had preferred 2010), a close reading of the Declaration will reveal there is no finality about the schedule as it has been made dependent on the "completion of modalities" — the deadline for which is April 30, 2006. Given the record of failed deadlines, there is no certainty that this date will be kept. On non-agriculture market access (NAMA), the Swiss formula has been preferred but there is no indication whether the "coefficients" mentioned in the Declaration relate to just two (the choice of the developed countries) or many (preferred by India, in particular), which would take into account the different requirements of the poor economies. Similarly, on services, while India had specifically asked for Mode 4 concessions, the Declaration makes a special mention of such allowance only for the Least Developed Countries speaking of developing nations only in general terms.

In the run-up to Hong Kong, the Commerce Minister had harped that without a development focus, the Ministerial would fail. Admittedly, without actual figures being discussed, the "less-than-reciprocity" principle and that of flexibility, keeping the requirements of the developing economies in mind, have been made integral to the Declaration. But is this enough for the development focus? One will have to wait till the end of April to assess the true value of these commitments. Much more substantive, however, as a "development thrust" has been the getting together of nearly 110 developing countries (including LDCs) on a "common minimum platform" in Hong Kong. Hopefully, this grouping will last, making all multilateral trade negotiations a more productive experience for the poor of the world.