The Hindu Business Line : `Low' taking shape over Bay

THE persistent cloudiness observed over the past few days over the southeast Bay of Bengal have settled down to an area of low pressure, with prospects of moving in a west-northwest direction.

Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) told Business Line that the fresh `low' over the southeast Bay was a `slogger' and would take at least two days to organise better to move west-northwest. Indications are that it will curl into the southwest Bay in two to three days' time to trigger the next phase of northeast monsoon in the peninsula.

Rains would have started even earlier, with the shear zone docking into place in anticipation of the sea-based system from the southeast. They will grow in intensity as the system negotiates the home stretch.

It's too early to predict the area of landfall, but systems originating in the southeast Bay (east of 85 deg E) have a tendency to cross the Tamil Nadu coast. However, in the instant case, the transit point in the southwest Bay could possibly push the system a little further north of the southwest Bay from where the Andhra coast would fall within range. The progression will be watched closely before reaching a conclusion on the area of landfall, said Dr Gupta.

Meanwhile, Monday's resident upper air cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay of Bengal became less marked, as if leaving place for the incoming system from the southeast. The counterpart cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea persisted on Tuesday and extended up to 1.5 km above mean sea level.

Overall, the northeast monsoon extended its subdued state on Monday with rainfall being confined to Lakshadweep and a few places over Kerala. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu.

A western disturbance is expected to approach northwest India by Sunday, which may cause scattered rains/snow in the hilly regions and isolated rains in parts of the plains.

Scattered rains are likely over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep over the next two-three days. The rainfall activity over Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas is expected to revive by Saturday.

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