The Hindu Business Line : Turbulence shifts to south TN; but drenches Chennai

THE moisture-soaked zone of monsoon turbulence over the peninsula may have shifted south from the Chennai latitude but that has not prevented the `low' in the southwest Bay from driving its drencher bands hard into the Tamil Nadu Capital and even far beyond.

The 24 hours ending at 8.30 a.m. on Sunday saw scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity in the region with isolated heavy spells lashing Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Significant amounts of rainfall recorded during the period were (in cm) Chennai - 11; Cuddalore - 9; Karaikal - 12; Nagapattinam - 10; Minicoy - 4; Kochi and Kozhikode - 2 each and Mangalore - 1.

Isolated to scattered rainfall was recorded over south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema as well, revealing the geographical extent to which the `low' has exerted its influence. The system is making a painfully slow approach to the extreme south peninsular coast, and had shifted only slightly west to it its overnight position on Saturday.

Given this, there is not going to be any big change in the prevailing wet weather for the next three-four days as well, says the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). It has forecast further rain for Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep.

"The `low' is persisting just as we had predicted," Dr K. J. Ramesh of the NCMRWF told Business Line on Sunday. The slow pace will only add to its life and potency. It is expected that it will now move very slow in a west-northwesterly direction in the coming days and cross the peninsula and onward into the Arabian Sea.

Under this scenario, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are expected in several places in Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep over the next three-four days.

Scattered to isolated rain is likely in such far-flung areas (relative to the position of the `low') as north interior and coastal Karnataka, Telangana and even parts of Chhattisgarh.

Towards the northeast, a weak westerly trough has been persisting over northeast Bay of Bengal for the past few days. Dr Ramesh identified this as a remnant of the deep depression that had split into two on making landfall over the Andhra Pradesh coast the week before last. This is expected to cause isolated to scattered rainfall activity over the States of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh at least for the next two days.

A fresh upper air cyclonic circulation associated with a passing westerly trough is likely to make its presence felt over Jammu and Kashmir by Monday, the NCMRWF said in its region-wise forecast. This is expected to bring isolated to scattered rain/snow over Jammu and Kashmir to start with, gradually extending its influence to over hills of Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal.

In the South, scattered to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy spells is likely over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep. Isolated to scattered to rainfall is also expected over Telangana, north interior Karnataka and the Bay islands.

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