The Hindu Business Line : Bay warming up again, rains to drive up east

THOUGH bolstered by the formation of a fresh cyclonic circulation over south-central Bay of Bengal on Monday, the northeast monsoon is now matched only by an equally engaging sidelight in which an invading extra-tropical system is driving the wet weather beyond the peninsular east.

An incoming westerly trough from the mid-latitudes is setting up an interaction with a resident but less-marked cyclonic circulation over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Vidarbha to take the combined system east to Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand en route to Bihar and Sikkim.

The resulting wet weather will be entirely independent of the northeast monsoon concurrently active in the southern peninsula, said Dr K.J. Ramesh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

As per the NCMRWF assessment, the intensity of rainfall over Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and south interior Karnataka is expected to decrease over the next two days. At the same time, regions such as Telangana (for next 24 hours at the least), north and west Orissa, Maharashtra, east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh will be brought under wet weather in which rains will be scattered to fairly widespread with pockets of heavy rainfall.

Isolated to scattered rainfall activity is expected over parts of the hilly regions of Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar for the next four to five days. However, rainfall activity over the north coastal regions of Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and the North-East States is likely to be isolated.

According to Dr Ramesh, the impending spell of rains will be a godsend for Bihar and Jharkhand since they had ended up way below the normal at the end of the southwest monsoon that drew to a close on September 30.

In its weather update, the NCMRWF said rainfall during the 24 hours ending Monday morning has been light to moderate over parts of Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar islands, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, coastal Orissa, Assam, Meghalaya, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema and interior parts of Karnataka.

Also on Monday, a fresh cyclonic circulation set itself up over the central parts of south Bay of Bengal, beating forecasts made only the day before. Model predictions indicate that the cyclonic circulation is likely to get organised in the coming days and move very slowly in a north-northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely to develop over the coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh and Orissa by Wednesday. When asked if the fresh cyclonic circulation would progress to organise itself into another `low,' Dr Ramesh said a final word on this would have to wait. Meanwhile, the existing `low' over the Arabian Sea persisted and is likely to move in northwesterly direction.

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