The Hindu Business Line : Whither crop diversification?

IT IS DISAPPOINTING that the alarming deceleration in farm growth over the last eight years has not evoked any strong response from the policymakers, beyond pious statements. It should be a matter of national concern that after registering a 4.7 per cent growth in the Eighth Plan (1992-97), the average annual growth in agriculture and allied sectors of forestry, logging and fisheries computed in real terms (at 1993-94 prices) has declined during the Ninth Plan (1997-2002) at 2.1 per cent and in the first three years of the Tenth, down to a measly 1.2 per cent.

Given the continuing importance of agriculture to economic growth and well being of the rural areas, the Tenth Plan rightly emphasised on raising the productivity of land and water resources, especially by increasing the cropping intensity. Dry land farming, credit and cooperatives, crop insurance, horticulture and rural infrastructure have been identified as thrust areas. The Tenth Plan Mid-term Appraisal also underscored that agricultural diversification has to be a major element of the strategy to accelerate farm growth. In his last Budget speech, the Finance Minister said the Ministry of Agriculture would prepare a roadmap for diversification with focus on horticulture, dairy, poultry, pulses and oilseeds. As part of the diversification strategy land was to be shifted from cereals to non-cereals (increasing both farm income and employment) and simultaneously productivity of cereals raised to ensure adequate per capita availability.

Six months down the line, there is nothing to suggest that a well-thought-through diversification strategy has been worked out. The monsoons of 2004 and 2005 well demonstrated the vulnerability of cereals production to weather aberrations. For a second consecutive year, the cereals output is set to decline. While food security is not exactly under threat, lower production of paddy, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses has led to tight supplies, firm prices and declining public stocks of fine cereals; the government has to keep an eye on market prices and the import option open. Worse, today, the daily per capita availability of foodgrains is at least 10 per cent lower than the 500 grams registered in 1997, despite production having risen. In a situation of unstable cereals production in the face of supply increases trailing demand growth, shifting land away from cereals has to be handled with extreme caution. This is not to argue for continued mono-cropping of cereals but to ensure that crop diversification does not lead to a shrinkage of the land area under cereals.

Though low yield is generally treated as the cause of poor growth in agriculture, in reality, such factors as poor input delivery, antiquated agronomic practices and inadequate pre- and post-harvest management are to blame. These weaknesses cannot be addressed without stepping up public investment. Though welcome for its income-generating and value-adding benefits, shift to horticultural crops will need the support of processing and marketing infrastructure. Finally, given that agriculture is a State subject, farm sector growth will depend to a large extent on the State governments, their budgetary outlays for agriculture and the monitoring of fund deployment.

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