The Hindu Business Line : World soyabean output forecast at 216.78 mt

SOYABEAN crop prospects in the US have further deteriorated because of inadequate precipitation in major growing areas and rust disease as a result of which output would be about 10 million tonnes lower from the record of last year.

The first US Department of Agriculture (USDA) survey-based forecast of the US soybean production for 2005-06 is 2.791 billion bushels, 99 million bushels below the July forecast and 350 million bushels below last year's record crop.

World soyabean production for 2005-06 is forecast at 216.78 million tonnes, a slight increase from the 214.32 mt of the previous year, despite a sharp decline in the US production, which on current reckoning is placed at 75.96 mt, down from the July estimate of 78.65 mt. In 2004-05, the US harvested a record soyabean crop of 85.48 mt.

The agency continues to maintain its projection for Brazilian soyabean crop for next year 2005-06 at 62.00 mt and that for Argentina at 39.00 mt despite the possibility that these large numbers may not be achieved.

In 2004-05, despite high initial forecasts, Brazil ended up with 51 mt production and Argentina with 39 mt although in case of the latter, many believe the actual crop size was lower at 37 mt.

Crops in South America would be planted only in November and currently there is nothing to suggest a significant bounce-back in crop.

In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate released on Friday, the USDA has projected global oilseeds output for 2005-06 at 377.33 mt, only marginally lower than the previous year's 379.24 mt as the projected loss in the US is substantially made up in other origins.

Despite the uncertainties on oilseeds production front, global vegetable production in 2005-06 is expected to continue to grow. The latest estimate of production is 111.3 mt, up from 107.8 mt in 2004-05.

Closing stock of vegetable oil for 2005-06 is projected at 6.93 mt down from the last year's 7.27 mt.

Economic recovery in western countries and strong consumption growth in Asia are seen driving the demand for vegetable oil up. High crude prices are creating conditions for greater diversion vegetable oil for production of biofuel, especially in Europe. Anticipated low oilseeds output in India too is likely to send favourable price signals.

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