The Hindu Business Line : Plains in the north bracing for `weak phase' of monsoon

The NCMRWF said rainfall is likely over the north and northwest during the next 24 hours. Subsequently, rainfall activity is likely to recede from the plains.

Thiruvananthapuram , Aug 7

THE plains of the north are bracing for a `weak phase' of the monsoon with the prevailing western disturbance moving north-northeastwards and the monsoon trough having moved further north to its normal position.

Meanwhile, Saturday's low-pressure area over Jharkhand has weakened and settled as an upper air cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh and adjoining northeastern States. This is another sign of the weakening phase of the monsoon that brings about a temporary stoppage to the rain activity in central and north India (but not necessarily over west coast). The core rain belt shifts largely to the east and the northeast in the process.

To hold for some time: Speaking to Business Line, Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), said the weak phase would continue to hold for `some time.' By Wednesday, the land-based circulation over Bangladesh and the adjoining northeast (unlike one centred over the Bay) is expected to organise itself into a well marked `low' in the firmest yet indication of the weak phase having set in.

On the ground, the temporary movement of the monsoon trough to the north of its normal position will translate into sustained rainfall over Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir for the next 24-48 hours. The north northeastward moving western disturbance will proceed to rob the plains of Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh of much of the rain activity.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall has been indicated for the east, viz. West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and parts of Jharkhand and Vidarbha during the next 2-3 days.

Similarly, the organisation of the `low' over Bangladesh will result in the rainfall activity over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and parts of Jharkhand and Vidarbha getting a boost from Wednesday (August 10) onwards.

The offshore trough now runs from south Konkan to north Kerala coast and is likely to cause moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Konkan and Goa and coastal Karnataka during next 4-5 days.

Region-wise forecast:

In the region-wise forecast for the next five days, the NCMRWF said rainfall is likely over the north and northwest during the next 24 hours. Subsequently, rainfall activity is likely to recede from the plains. However, fairly widespread activity is expected over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal over the next 48 hours.

In the east and the northeast, Orissa, parts of Jharkhand and the northeastern States are likely to receive fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy falls during the next 2-3 days. Subsequently, the activity over the northeastern States is likely to reduce. Isolated to scattered rainfall activity is likely over the rest of the regions during this period. In east central India, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha are likely to receive scattered to fairly widespread rains during the next 4-5 days. In the south, Karnataka and north Kerala are likely to receive fairly widespread rainfall during the next 2-3 days with isolated heavy falls in the coastal regions of Karnataka and Kerala. The rest of the areas in the region will receive isolated to scattered rains.

Towards the west, Konkan and Goa and parts of north Maharashtra may receive fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls in Konkan and Goa during the next 2-3 days. The rest of the region will receive isolated to scattered rains during this period.

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