The Hindu Business Line : PM's Washington visit

AT this juncture, all indications point to the fact that Dr Manmohan Singh's visit to the US will be of more than usual interest to both New Delhi and Washington.

As far as the latter is concerned, there are clear signs that it wants India to play an important part in its world-view of politico-economic alliances in the second and third decades of the 21st century.

For New Delhi, in the emerging "global" environment — where erstwhile Cold War calculations are no longer applicable — support of any sort from the US would be welcome because it would help to increase Indian leverage in international negotiations in diverse fields.

Seen in this perspective it is probable that the Indo-US defence framework agreement is an integral part of the developing Washington-New Delhi entente.

In other words, going by public criticism of the agreement, it would seem that New Delhi has conceded some ground in this particular sphere in the expectation that the US would give way in other areas, which would be of strategic-tactical value to the Indian position on the world stage.

It is, of course, not known whether US support for the G-4 UN General Assembly resolution on the changes in the Security Council's membership, etc, formed part of the "arrangement".

If it did, events over the past couple of days indicate that this part of the package will not work out now, particularly after Ms Shirin Tahir-Kheli, adviser to the US secretary of State, Ms Condoleeza Rice, told members of the General Assembly that Washington would work to "achieve enlargement of the Security Council but only in the right way and at the right time".

More directly, she exhorted members "to oppose this resolution (introduced in the General Assembly by Brazil representing the G-4 and scheduled to come up for voting on July 20) and, should it come to a vote, to vote against it", thus squarely putting paid to the hopes, if any, of a quick Indian entry into the permanent membership of the Security Council.

Why Washington has chosen to take this step now is not known although it is clear that the decision represents a victory for those Americans who feel that the "Big Five" concept of yesteryear — namely, the US, France, Britain, Russia and China (replacing Taiwan) — is still relevant in the governance of international relations in the present century.

Certainly, there is little relevance for the concept today when the catchphrase is global liberalisation and equity in relations among nations.

However, seen strictly from the narrow American point of view, there is still a lot of use to which the veto can be put to, and a lot of practical sense in keeping Security Council membership down to the present five, as became apparent during Washington's Iraq misadventure.

This is the general world-view of Washington at the altar of which, understandably, the specific Indian consideration of supporting enlargement of the Security Council has been sacrificed.

It would of course be misjudgement on the part of New Delhi to see in this development anything more than a temporary setback to its drive to a permanent berth in the Security Council.

More importantly, it should in no way disturb the Prime Minister's discussions with the US Administration beyond making the point that New Delhi has been more than a little disappointed with the US stand on the issue.

The fact of the matter is that, just now, there are a number of other, far more important, subjects on which there should be a convergence of India-US views, such as supply of fuel for India's nuclear power reactors and the ongoing WTO negotiations, which would be of great practical value particularly to New Delhi and also to Washington, indirectly.

This apart, convincing US investors that the "India door" is wide open for them (which would also be a signal to investors from other parts of the world) should be an important target for Dr Singh, specially now when the economic-reform waters have been muddied a bit at home by coalition politics.

Given the PM's high stock in the West and his gentle way with people generally, there is no reason to believe that he will not succeed in his mission.

Ranabir Ray Choudhury

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