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Friday, Jun 24, 2005

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Range-bound movement

K. Premkumar

THURSDAY'S trading activity witnessed a narrow movement. Neither the bulls nor the bears could gain from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear domination on Friday has the potential to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

Nifty futures recommendation: The June month contract opened with a bull gap of five points and went further by another three points. Later on, bears took charge of the day's proceedings.

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The June contract moved within a band of 20 points, registering an intra-day low of 2155.00. It closed with a marginal gain of around two points with respect to previous close.

The uptrend in the June contract remains intact. The exit and bearish trigger levels for the June contract are placed slightly away from the current level. In the normal course of trading on Friday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock futures recommendation The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 active counters list remain undisturbed. The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Steel, State Bank and Reliance.

For Friday, most of the counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have an opportunity in Arvind Mills, Polaris and State Bank. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys, NTPC and Ranbaxy. The best bet among the above is likely to be buying in State Bank. The buy level for this counter is placed within a rupee from the last traded value. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh up-trend in State Bank.

Cash segment The composition of the top-10 tradable list had a few changes. Maruti and Wipro gained entry with the exit of Ranbaxy and SAIL. The exit level for the up-trend in Ranbaxy and the downtrend in SAIL are placed at 1080.95 and 53.55, respectively.

None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to terminate most of the prevailing counters in the list. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. A buying opportunity is likely to exist in the lone sideways counter — State Bank. For Friday, the best bet is likely to be buying in State Bank. The bullish trigger level for this counter is placed close to the last traded price. A bull move on Friday is likely to trigger the up-trend in State Bank.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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