Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Wednesday, Jun 22, 2005
Industry & Economy - Climate & Weather
IMD sees 10% deficit in June rainfall
Thiruvananthapuram , June 21
PERCEPTIBLE improvement in monsoon behaviour has encouraged India Meteorological Department (IMD) to make a call on likely June precipitation.
Speaking to Business Line, Dr M. Rajeevan, Director, Forecasting, said June might remain deficient "but not to the extent of 34 per cent as predicted by the Bangalore-based Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (CMMACS)."
"I will put it around 10 per cent," he said. Predicting June rainfall is difficult, given that the extent of variability could be as high as 24 per cent.
Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, National centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), tended to agree with this prognosis. In fact, the deficit of 59 per cent reported on June 15 had already come down to 53 per cent as of Sunday (June 19).
This means the system has made good the deficit by as much as 6 per cent in four days. "If this trend is to hold, we can very well expect the deficit to be brought down to the level the IMD is predicting," Dr Gupta said.
As for outlook on the severe heat wave in Orissa where the mercury breached the 50 deg C-mark on more than one occasion, Dr Rajeevan said some favourable conditions are building over the west central Bay of Bengal. Persistent cloud formation in the region is expected to bring heavy rain over Andhra Pradesh during the next two days.
"If the rain belt moves a little to the north, we can expect good showers in Orissa as well, which will drastically bring down temperatures. Let's hope for the best," Dr Rajeevan said.
According to Dr Gupta, the rain belt has reached up to Gopalpur in Orissa, but skipped Bhubaneswar, the State Capital. There is good cloud formation in the west central Bay but there is no sign of an all-important low-pressure system developing here at least over the next four days.
There is definite improvement in the situation with temperature levels coming down in north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. Even parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh experienced some rain on Tuesday.
Heat wave alert in North: The west and the northwest of the country will continue to experience dry weather and there are indications that heat is building up in the region. "In fact, we see heat wave conditions establishing in the plains over the next two days," Dr Gupta said. This is welcome viewed from the perspective of further strengthening and progress of the monsoon currents.
The heating of West and the Northwest in tandem with adjoining areas across the border in Pakistan will help set up the `monsoon heat low'. The heat wave has already struck Pakistan, and at least 40 people have been killed so far on account of the extreme weather.
In its update on Tuesday, the NCMRWF said the monsoon advanced to more parts north Arabian Sea, most parts of Saurashtra and Kutch, parts of Gujarat, parts of coastal Andhra, parts of Orissa, entire West Bengal and parts of Bihar. The northern limit passed through Nalia, Surat, Sholapur, Ganawaram, Gopalpur, Kolkata and Bhagalpur.
During the next 3-4 days, the system may progress further and cover some more parts of Saurashtra and Kutch, the Gujarat region, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, entire Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh, parts of Chhattisgarh, more parts of Orissa and Bihar and parts of Jharkhand.
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