![]() Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Monday, May 16, 2005 |
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Opinion
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Economy Government - Politics Progress card of the UPA regime Ranabir Ray Choudhury
WITH THE completion of a year by the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance regime, the time has come to evaluate its performance during the past 12 months, the specific object of the exercise being to ascertain whether the Government has been able to deliver on the promises it made after assumption of office. These promises are contained in the Common Minimum Programme drawn up by the ruling alliance, which has the support not only of the Congress and its allies such as Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal but also of the Left parties, led by the CPI(M). Incidentally, the Manmohan Singh Government continues to hold office today because of the support extended to him by the Left. The six basic principles of governance, as outlined in the CMP, are:
These are good benchmarks with which to test the UPA Government's performance although the point should be made that the first year of a five-year government's life is always a somewhat disturbed period because of the unavoidable teething problems faced by a new regime. In fact, of the 12 months, around a third should be set aside for getting the delivery system in good shape, which leaves seven-eight months for policies to be implemented, and the Government's performance to be judged on that basis. To take the first of the six "basic principles" listed above "dealing firmly with all "obscurantist and fundamentalist elements who seek to disturb social amity and peace" there is little doubt that the UPA regime has fared well. Indeed, if one were to count the number of times issues such as Ayodhya have figured in the morning's papers since the UPA regime took over, one cannot but conclude that progress in this sphere has been significant. True, Godhra has hit the headlines occasionally, but this had had more to do with political manoeuvring on the part of some UPA partners, which is not the same thing as the actual occurrence of communally-tainted events. Indeed, even the "anniversary" of the destruction of the Babri Masjid last December passed off rather uneventfully, which is not what has been happening during the years of BJP-led NDA rule. To take the second principle dealing with the economy "to ensure that the economy grows at least 7-8 per cent per year in a sustained manner over a decade and more, and in a manner that generates employment so that each family is assured of a safe and viable livelihood" it can perhaps be said that the Government has done as good a job as it could do in the circumstances. Certainly, the point cannot be made that it has slipped up on this specific front. On the contrary, it has been able to build on the foundations laid by the Vajpayee Government. If figures are needed to bolster the point, the Central Statistical Organisation's estimate can be cited, according to which industrial production grew by eight per cent in the last financial year against seven per cent in the year before, yielding the fastest rate of growth since March 2000. On the employment front, however, the CMP's schedule has been disturbed by the debate on the draft of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Bill, a legislative initiative which has been stalled by, among other things, certain points raised by the Left. The third principle of governance concerns the farm sector, specifically the enhancement of the "welfare and well-being of farmers, farm labour and workers, particularly those in the unorganised sector" and assuring "a secure future for their families in every respect". Here too the UPA Government has taken not taken any step which can be said to have gone against the interests of the farmers who comprise nearly three-fifths of the country's 1.1 billion population (agriculture accounts for 22 per cent of GDP). Admittedly, the farm sector's expected performance in the current year is uncertain, but this is not due to the drawing up and implementation of faulty policies. The weather bug has been the main culprit in agriculture's dismal growth of slightly more than one per cent in 2004-2005 compared with a 9.6 per cent performance in the previous year. This year, too, farming prospects may be hurt because of an inadequate monsoon. The Bangalore-based Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (which has predicted the rains correctly in seven of the past eight years) has said that there will be a 12 per cent shortfall in rain in July after a "normal" June. A clearer picture will emerge by the end of this month when the Centre comes out with its forecast for August and September, the last two months of the monsoon season. As for the fourth and fifth principles relating to the empowerment of women "politically, educationally, economically and legally" and uplift measures for the deprived in Indian society not much has been accomplished by the Manmohan Singh Government, which again can be attributed to the fact that not much time has elapsed for any meaningful policy impact to be made in these spheres. However, what is specially striking is the lack of any progress in the matter of setting aside seats for women in Parliament, which actually measures the reluctance of male politicians of almost every party to make way for their female colleagues in larger numbers. One would have thought that if male politicians were sincere in the interest shown by them to improve the status of womenfolk generally, the reservation of seats for women in Parliament would be among the first steps they would take to further the cause of the weaker sex. As regards education, generally, the Prime Minister himself is reported to have been critical of the way funds collected from the education cess (around Rs 8,000 crore last year) have been allowed to languish in the general government revenues. The last principle encouraging the creative energies of our entrepreneurs, businessmen, scientists, engineers "and all other professionals and productive forces of society" is clearly the most important from the long-term growth perspective of the economy. It must be said to the credit of the UPA Government that, despite the mix of political and economic philosophies that form the corpus of UPA governance, it has done a good job till now. The most important result of this has been that, to the outside world, the strong impression has been conveyed that the Indian economy means business and that, increasingly, India is demanding, and will have to be accorded, its rightful place in the comity of nations. This would never have been the image of the country abroad if the Manmohan Singh Government had messed up things during the past year, which speaks well not only of the way the Government has carried itself so far but also of the way the Left pillar of the regime has conducted itself in the discharge of its responsibility to overlook implementation of the CMP.
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