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Friday, May 13, 2005

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Range-bound movement

K. Premkumar

THURSDAY'S trading activity witnessed narrow movement. Bulls managed to gain marginally from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands neutral.

Bull pressure on Friday is likely to change the sentiment reading to bullish. On the contrary, the sentiment reading is likely to turn bearish.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The May month contract opened around the previous close and thereafter gained 16 points. Bears were unable to make any impact during the day's trading. The May contract moved within a band of 19 points. It closed with a gain of 10 points over Wednesday's close.

Bulls were successful to the extent of terminating the downtrend in the May contract. The short trade exited with a loss of around 9 points. Bullish trigger for the May contract is placed quite closer to the current level. Bull move on Friday is likely to trigger the uptrend in the May contract. Bearish trigger level for the May contract is placed far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list underwent a change. Arvind Mill regained entry with the exit of MTNL. The exit level for the downtrend in MTNL and the uptrend in PNB are placed at 118.05 and 373.70 respectively.

None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend. Bear pressure on Friday could be a threat to most of the uptrend counters in the list. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Selling opportunities are likely in as much as eight counters. For Friday, the best is likely to be the buying in Reliance. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to the last traded value. Bull move on Friday has the potential to initiate a fresh uptrend in Reliance.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. Thursday's market action resulted in terminating the uptrend in ONGC.

Bull domination on Monday is likely to terminate most of the prevailing downtrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the lone uptrend counter, Maruti, is likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in almost all the counters. Selling opportunities are likely in five counters. Buying in Tata Motors is likely to be the best bet for Friday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Buy level for this counter is placed within two rupees from the closing price. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Tata Motors.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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