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Tuesday, Apr 12, 2005

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Steel stocks firm amid widespread fall

Jayanta Mallick

Kolkata , April 11

THE steel stocks generally held firm today at close amid widespread correction in the market. According to analysts and brokers, some players have been selling on uncertainty over global steel prices holding for the second or third quarter of this fiscal. But buying at lower levels by a section of investors saw majority of the counters finish in the green.

As local steel stocks witnessed contradictory calls on steel prices and margins, according to analysts, a great deal of churning took place in the sectoral counters resulting in transfers to stronger hands.

According to Mr Ramesh Damani, a market analyst, the weakness was caused by the reports that China would shortly start exporting steel.

"But the stronger Indian players, such as Tisco and SAIL, are unlikely to be impacted by the development. It is also unlikely that Chinese exports would depress the global steel prices in the medium term.

The other concerns that were aired in the market were that the iron ore prices are going up.

According to Mr Arun Kejriwal, an investment analyst, internationally BHP Billiton and at home Sesa Goa, are seen to be increasing their prices substantially.

"This raised the fear that input costs would put additional pressure on margins," Mr Kejriwal observed.

The reports like Arecelor's steel items prices were quoting lower in September futures contracts unnerved some investors.

Some analysts, however, argued that local steel counters are not strictly a play on international prices, though much of the sentimental strength is derived from the global spot and futures prices.

"Tisco is insulated from raw-material price pressure as it is self-reliant on inputs. In case of SAIL, except for coking coal, which it imports in significant amount, it is also not dependent on iron ore or other inputs," Mr Damani observed.

According to Mr Rajesh Agarwal of CD Equisearch, steel counters bounced back from lower levels on expectations of strong 2004-05 Q4 numbers.

"The domestic and overseas demand for steel has seen a strong rise and unlikely to flag in the near future. One round of price rise has already been announced by domestic players and another round may not be far off," he added.

According to Mr Gul Teckchandani, an investment strategist, it is difficult to predict fluctuations in the commodities, particularly so because of speculation and lack transparency about China factor.

"But as things stand now, the so-called slowdown in Chinese demand have not taken place and there are very little indications that it will do so in the near future," he observed.

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