Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Tuesday, Mar 29, 2005

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Markets - Technical Analysis

Bear run arrested

K. Premkumar

BULLS were in control of Monday's trading activity. However, they could not gain much from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bearish.

Bull move on Tuesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment reading is likely to be further strengthened.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The March contract opened with a bull gap of three points and moved by another 17 points. Bears managed to make a partial recovery during the fag end of the day's trading. The March contract closed with a gain of 17 points over Thursday's close.

The downtrend in the March contract remains intact. The exit and bullish trigger levels for the March contract remain around the same level. In the normal course of trading on Tuesday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 active counters list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list too remains the same with no major changes. Tata Steel, Reliance and State Bank were the top three traded counters in this segment.

Bull move on Tuesday is likely to terminate the downtrend in CNX-IT and ONGC. On the other hand, the uptrend in Infosys, Reliance and Satyam is likely to be under threat.

Three opportunities are likely to exist on either side of trading.

Buying in Tata Steel is likely to be the best for Tuesday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to the current level. Bull pressure on Tuesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Tata Steel.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had a few changes. Reliance moved to the top slot and PNB moved to the second position.

Bear pressure on Tuesday could be a threat to the uptrend in Reliance and Satyam. On the contrary, the downtrend in Bank of India and ONGC is likely to be terminated.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in five counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters.

The best bet is likely to the buying in SAIL. Buy level for this counter is placed quite closer to the last traded price. Bull move on Tuesday has the potential to initiate a fresh uptrend in SAIL.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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