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Friday, Mar 18, 2005

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Bear domination

K. Premkumar

BEARS were in total control of Thursday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bearish. Bull domination on Friday is likely to reduce the bear count by a considerable margin, thereby, resulting a change in the sentiment reading.

On the other hand, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

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Nifty futures recommendation: The near month March contract opened with a bear gap of 10 points and made steady losses during the course of the day's trading. Bulls were left with no opportunity to recover. The March contract moved within a band of 20 points registering an intra-day high of 2115. It closed with a loss of 24 points over previous close.

Thursday's market action resulted in triggering the downtrend in the March contract. In the normal course of trading on Friday, the initiated short position is likely to continue. The exit and bullish trigger level are placed at the same level. In the normal course of trading on Friday, these levels are unlikely to be triggered.

Stock futures recommendation: The top-10 tradable list underwent a change. Infosys regained entry with the exit of Ranbaxy. Bank of India moved to the fifth position followed by Satyam and Tata Motors.

Except for the downtrend in Reliance, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in six counters. For Friday, the best is likely to be the selling in ONGC. This counter is in the uptrend. Bear move on Friday is likely to reverse the prevailing uptrend in ONGC.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had a minor change. ONGC and Tata Steel interchanged their positions. The downtrend in Bharti Tele is likely to terminate at 215.55.

Bull move on Friday could be a threat to most of the downtrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the lone uptrend counter - Andhra Bank is likely to be under threat. Bears are unlikely to have any opportunity for Friday's trading. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. The best bet is likely to be Bank of India. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to the last traded price. Bull domination on Friday has the potential to initiate a fresh uptrend in Bank of India.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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