The Hindu Business Line : Central Asian States — II: India has a lot of catching up to do

India should not be shy of proposing and launching bold measures to ameliorate the lot of the Central Asian states and arguing their case before regional and international fora. India too will stand to benefit considerably from the symbiotic and synergistic partnership.

WITH China following a forward policy, can the US afford to be left behind? The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of the Johns Hopkins University was quick to set up in 1996 a Central Asia-Caucuses Institute, a precursor to other think-tanks focussed on Central Asia that followed. Before September 2001, however, the overtures of the US to the Central Asian States were tentative, conforming to the time-(dis)honoured pattern of offering protective cover, defence deals and arms supplies.

The 9/11 Al Qaeda terrorist outrage on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon drove the US to look at the whole world as its staging ground for its war on terrorism and forge strategic alliances and security compacts to that end. Countries of Central Asia became essential pieces on the US checkerboard for two important reasons: The first was, of course, their immense reserves of oil and gas, and natural and mineral wealth.

The second, and the most immediate and sinister, compulsion was the rapid emergence after 9/11 of terrorist groups such as Hizb-ul-Tahrir and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), bent on fomenting violence and insurgency with a view to overthrowing Central Asian governments, taking advantage of their repressive misrule. Hizb ut-Tahrir whose adherents reportedly number 40,000 seeks the establishment of a caliphate in the region, and is banned in all Central Asian states.

Rising tide of militancy

The IMU, using at various times as suited its tactical interests, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan as its bases of operations, has been a close ally of Al Qaeda and Taliban. It has carried out a number of terrorist acts, including the latest in the series in March last year in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan (although a new group, calling itself Islamic Jihad, has also claimed responsibility for the attacks).

Some intelligence experts even see a connection between the Uzbek violence and recent international terrorist activity elsewhere, including the Madrid commuter train bombings and the foiled Islamic radical plot in Great Britain, since the modus operandi of IMU militants, especially the use of female suicide bombers, is the trademark of the international jehadi terrorists.

Some of the prominent and rabidly fanatical leaders of these groups are said to be hiding in the tribal belt along Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The IMU is one of the outfits blacklisted by the US, and only recently, it figured in a public advisory issued by the US State Department to Tajikistan, that it remains `active' in the country and still poses `risks' to travellers.

These countries have become key allies of the US in the latter's bid to eradicate terrorism at any cost.

In all of them, there is ample evidence to conclude that Islamic radical propaganda, including incitement to jehadi terrorism, is abundantly funded.

China, Russia (with the festering Chechenyan sore) and the US (eagerly watched for possible spoils by Japan, the European Union and NATO members) are thus willy-nilly the troika on which now hinges the future stability, security and economic growth of the region.

In all this power play to capture vantage points, India has so far been like the dog in the famous Sherlock Holmes story that did not bark in the night. No doubt, when the National Democratic Alliance Government was in power, the Defence Minister, Mr George Fernandes, paid a visit to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakstan ostensibly "to build strategic space in the region and encircle Pakistan".

No doubt, too, India has marked its presence in Tajikistan with an air base, its second (other than the one in Sri Lanka) outside its borders. But mainly, it has preferred to deal with them one-on-one for ad hoc purposes of either buying Soviet era military equipment like Ilyushin-76 transport aircraft (suitable for transporting troops or for mounting an aerial AWCS-like radar that it obtained from Israel, the Phalcon) or selling weapons to local governments. It has also offered facilities for joint training, research and development initiatives with those States.

Decade of Central Asia

But there has been nothing like a long-range strategic vision which will enable it to participate in energy and infrastructure projects, and widen the opportunities for increased trade.

Regional frameworks such as SCO or the Central Asia Cooperation Organisation (or the newly formed "Central Asia Plus Japan Dialogue"), have left Indian policy-makers cold, making India, as a commentator puts it, "a lousy team player". Its contribution to the development of the region has been niggardly, of the order of $100 million, whereas Japan has pledged $2.6 billion over a 10-year period. So much so, the Central Asian States have backed Japan's permanent membership of the UN Security Council, ignoring India's claim.

The above account of the opportunities that India has missed and is missing also holds pointers to the leeway India has to make to catch up not only with China, Japan and the US, but also Pakistan which has recently jumped into the Central Asian theatre with an eye on the main chance.

India does not have too much time to formulate a set of counter-manoeuvres to prevent Central Asia from becoming a cockpit of India-Pakistan rivalry. India's security concerns about the region are no less pressing than those of China and the US; if anything they are more so, since the effects of any catastrophic terrorism indulged in by IMU or Islamic jihad finding refuge in the region can be far-reaching and will not leave India unscathed.

More than all, as a regional power with a stake in the well-being of the underdogs among members of the comity of nations, India has a clear and present responsibility to rescue the Central Asian States from the thraldom of poverty and unemployment plaguing them and to bring them to the level of reasonably developed countries in terms of education, infrastructure, industrial development, and economic growth. It should not be shy of proposing and launching bold measures to ameliorate their lot before regional and international forums.

It is a win-win situation in the sense India too will stand to benefit considerably from the symbiotic and synergistic partnership. It should press the United Nations to declare the next decade as the Decade of Central Asia to turn the spotlight on the region. Now is the time for framing policies and strategies to fulfil this urgent and important mission.

(Concluded)

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