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Tuesday, Dec 07, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Range-bound movement

K. Premkumar

MONDAY'S trading activity witnessed a range bound movement. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands mildly bullish.

Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to reduce the bull count to a bare minimum, thereby changing the sentiment reading to bearish. On the other hand, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened.

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Nifty futures recommendation: Initially, the December month contract gained 10 points and thereafter moved within that band. Neither the bulls nor the bears could gain much from the day's trading. The December contract moved within a band of 20 points. It closed with a marginal gain of 3 points over Friday's close.

The long position in the December contract remains undisturbed. The exit and bearish trigger levels remains unchanged. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate the uptrend in the December contract. Bearish trigger level is unlikely to be triggered on Tuesday.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. The ranking of the list had some changes. Reliance moved to the second position and Maruti to the sixth position.

Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to terminate the prevailing uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the downtrend in the CNX-IT, Infosys and Satyam is likely to be under threat.

Four opportunities are likely to exist on either side of trading.

Selling in Reliance is likely to be the best bet for Tuesday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed very closer to its current level. Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Reliance.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. Monday's market action had no impact on the recommended counter Reliance.

Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the tradable list. On the other hand, the downtrend in Infosys, Satyam and Wipro is likely to be under threat/.

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in ONGC and Reliance. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys, Satyam and Wipro.

The best among the above is likely to be the selling in ONGC. This counter is in the uptrend. The exit and bearish trigger levels for this counter is placed quite closer to its closing price. Bear domination on Tuesday has the potential to reverse the prevailing uptrend in ONGC.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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