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Saturday, Oct 02, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull sway

K. Premkumar

BULLS continued their supremacy over bears on Friday. The sentiment reading of the tradeable counters stands bullish. Bear domination on Monday is likely to reduce the bull count by a considerable margin thereby neutralising the sentiment reading. On the other hand, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

Nifty futures recommendation: During the open in the October contract lost around 11 points. Bears failed to capitalise as they yielded to bull pressure. Bulls consistently made new highs through out the day's trading. The October contract closed higher for the week with a gain of 39 points.

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Initial bear move led to the termination of the uptrend in October contract. The long trade exited around breakeven level. Bullish trigger level for the October contract is placed quite closer to its current level. Bull move on Monday is likely to reinstate the uptrend in October contract.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradeable list had no change. The top three traded counters in this segment were Tata Steel, Reliance Industries and Maruti.

Bear pressure on Monday is likely to be a threat to the prevailing uptrend counters in the list. On the contrary, the lone downtrend counter is likely to be terminated. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in CNX IT and Satyam Computers. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. For Monday, the best bet is likely to be the buying in Reliance Industries. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Reliance Industries.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 active counters list remains intact. However, the ranking of the list had a minor change. Reliance Industries and Satyam Computers interchanged their positions.

All the uptrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat for Monday. Bears are likely to have opportunity in Maruti and Tata Motors. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in four counters. Buying in SAIL is likely to be the best for Monday's trading. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed very near to its last traded price. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in SAIL.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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