The Hindu Business Line : China Sea systems take rain away from North

MOST parts of the country have gone without rains over the past few days with the monsoon trough shifting to the foothills of the Himalayas under the `pull effect' of a string of at least three active cyclonic circulations over the China Sea.

The shifting monsoon trough has taken away with it the associated rain belt, which was now confined to the North-East of the country, according to Mr M.D. Ramachandran, Director, Met Office (Thiruvananthapuram).

As on Friday, one of these China Sea systems had crossed land over Hong Kong and weakened in the process; but this does not offer any respite as the other two systems continue to be active and are situated off the coast and outward into the sea. These systems have been sucking away the moisture being transported into mainland India by the seasonal circulations, thereby depriving most of North India of rain.

According to Mr Ramachandran, the conditions are not exactly favourable for the formation "anytime soon" of monsoon `lows' in the Bay of Bengal, which alone could wean the seasonal trough from the hills and post it back suitably across the central plains leading to revival of monsoon.

Monsoon `not finished': Dr P.V. Joseph, former Director, IMD, and Emeritus Professor at the Monsoon Studies Centre of the Cochin University for Science and Technology (Cusat), told Business Line that the monsoon had entered another lean phase but this was on expected lines.

The lull was the result of, what he described, as the seesaw effect of the seasonal atmospheric systems over the Bay of Bengal and the Western Pacific. When these systems are active over the Western Pacific, specifically the South China Sea, there is a corresponding weakening of the counterpart systems over the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. The status quo is restored with monsoon lows developing over the Bay.

According to Dr Joseph, the monsoon was far from being finished. There is a good 10-day spell to look forward to in early September, he added.

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