The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon enters strong, active phase in North

THE south-west monsoon has entered the `active phase' with the associated rain belt, powered by the twin engines of low pressure systems on either side of the peninsula, now positioned over the central regions of the country.

According to Dr M. Rajeevan, Director - Forecasting, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune, the satellite pictures reveal a "very strong monsoon" at work, handheld through its northward pincer course by what had now become a deep depression originating from the West Central Bay of Bengal.

On Sunday, the system was in process of crossing the Orissa coast bringing in its wake heavy rains into the east central regions of the country. It was expected to help the monsoon make further inroads to cover States such as Andhra Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

According to Dr Rajeevan, the monsoon would be able to sustain its progress in this fashion "for some more days to come." Asked if this would continue to hold the crucial July phase, he said he would not be able to comment on it just yet. "We are still working out how July rainfall will be. We expect to come out with a forecast by the month-end", he informed Business Line.

The northward motion of the rain belt and its replication is now known by the name, `the 30- to 50-day mode' of the monsoon. The replication period varies from year to year around a mean of about 40 days.

When the rain belt positions itself over the central portions of the country, it is called an active phase of the monsoon, best characterised by the formation of lows and depressions over the North Bay of Bengal that move into the mainland giving heavy rainfall.

According to the IMD, as on Sunday, the south-west monsoon had advanced into the remaining parts of Sikkim, the entire Gangetic West Bengal, most parts of Orissa and some parts of Chattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand.

The deep depression originating from West Central Bay was likely to move in a west northwesterly direction and weaken gradually.

Under its influence, rain/thundershowers have been forecast for most places of Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Chattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand. Rains had been forecast also for many places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, the Andaman and Nicobar, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa. Conditions were favourable for further advance of the monsoon into more parts of Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Orissa.

The IMD also warned about heavy to very heavy rainfall for Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Karnataka, Chattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Konkan and Goa. The state of the sea would be very rough along the North Andhra and Orissa coasts and fishermen have been advised not to venture out into the high seas.

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