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Saturday, May 29, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear onslaught

K. Premkumar

THE sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands absolutely bearish with no uptrend counters. Irrespective of bull or bear domination on Monday, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

Nifty futures recommendation: The June contract opened six points lower than its previous close and remained weak throughout the day. It moved within a band of 76 points. Bears capitalised the day's entire move leaving the bulls with no opportunity to recover. June contract closed lower for the week with a strong bearish note.

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Bear domination during the day initiated the downtrend in the June contract. In the normal course of trading on Monday, the initiated short position is likely to continue. The exit and bullish trigger levels for the June contract are placed far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list had two changes. HPCL and Union Bank gained entry with the exit of GAIL and ONGC. The ranking of the list had some changes.

Tata Motors moved to the second position and Satyam to the seventh position. Trading activity in M&M was quite hectic on Friday with more than 4,200 trades.

The exit level for the short position in GAIL and ONGC is placed at Rs 165.05 and Rs 685.05 respectively.

Bear pressure prevailing in the market has placed the exit and bullish trigger levels for all the counters at a far away level. The nearest entry level is for HPCL. Its buy level is placed at Rs 328.25.

Cash segment: There were no new entries to the top-10 tradable list in this segment. The ranking of the list had a change. ONGC and Tata Motors interchanged their positions.

In the normal course of trading on Monday, the prevailing downtrend counters in the tradable list are likely to be safe. Bullish entry levels for all the counters in the list are placed far away.

The nearest entry level is for HPCL. This counter has closed at Rs 312.05 and its buy level is placed at Rs 328.10. Firm bull domination on Monday has the potential to reverse the prevailing downtrend in HPCL.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a Chennai-based technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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