The Hindu Business Line : Shortfall seen in global coffee output

BRAZIL has placed the 2004-05 coffee production estimate to be between 36.1 million bags (of 50 kgs) and 40.5 million bags, up from 28.8 million bags in 2003-04.

While the estimate will continue to fuel speculation for the rest of the year, the upward revision is unlikely to result in increase in global coffee supplies due to output declines elsewhere, said the International Coffee Organisation (ICO).

According to the Executive Director of ICO, on current reckoning, despite a higher production estimate for Brazil, there would be a shortfall of 4 million bags in global production compared to consumption requirements for the current year.

Total volume of coffee production in the world would be 108 million bags, up from 101.6 million bags in 2003-04, but considerably below 119.6 million bags in 2002-03. World coffee consumption in calendar year 2003 was 11.7 million bags, an increase from 109.3 million bags in 2002.

Coffee prices fell slightly last month in relation to prices recorded since the beginning of the year. The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price was 58.80 cents per pound, compared to 60.80 cents in March.

On India, ICO said that given the current market conditions, production was likely to remain below its record level of 5.51 million bags in 1999-2000.

After that year, production averaged 4.82 million bags.

Indian coffee output has been rising since the mid-1990s. The area under coffee is around3.49 lakh hectares, with 3.23 lakh hectares in production.

Robusta production accounts for about 63 per cent and arabica accounts for the rest.

The implementation of the policy of replacing robustas with arabicas is being held back due to technical and agronomic constraints, the ICO said.