The Hindu Business Line : IMD predicts 100% normal monsoon

The country is set to have a `100 per cent' normal south-west monsoon this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) today releasing a long range forecast that is even more bullish than the one it made for 2003.

According to the IMD Director-General, Dr S.K. Srivastav, total rainfall for the country as a whole during the coming monsoon season (June-September) will be 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with a quantitative model error of plus or minus 5 per cent. The LPA is the average precipitation received over a 70-year period (1901-70), which is about 88 cm.

What is more, as per the Department's 8-parameter `probabilistic model', there is only 4 per cent likelihood of a drought this year, which involves total rainfall during June-September being less than 90 per cent of the LPA. On the other hand, there is a 16 per cent probability of `below normal' rainfall (i.e. 90 to 97 per cent of LPA), 58 per cent probability of `near normal' rainfall (98 to 102 per cent of LPA), 18 per cent probability of `above normal' rainfall (103 to 110 per cent of LPA) and 4 per cent of `excess rainfall' (more than 110 per cent of LPA).

Contrast this to last year's forecast, which pointed at an overall 96 per cent of LPA figure. Further, the probabilistic model had indicated a 21 per cent chance of drought, alongside 39 per cent probability of `below normal' rainfall, 14 per cent probability of `near normal', 23 per cent probability of `above normal' and 3 per cent probability of `excess' rainfall. In other words, the IMD's prognosis for the current year is even more bullish than the forecast made for 2003. And considering that the actual rainfall precipitation during June-September 2003 turned out to be 102 per cent of LPA (much better than the 96 per cent forecast), it would be interesting to see whether the rain-gods will over-deliver this time round as well.

"The severe drought of 2002 made us somewhat cautious and that was, to an extent, reflected in last year's monsoon forecast, which was possibly on the conservative side," a senior IMD official told Business Line. He, however, denied that last year's munificent monsoon had imparted a similar reverse bias, leading to an over-optimistic prognosis for 2004.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather | Economy

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
IMD predicts 100% normal monsoon

Zee Tele Q4 net up 8 pc

HLL goes for business rejig, installs new management team

What the restructuring means

HLL's windy days

Can HLL sustain growth levels?

Cricket series: DD seeks details of revenue benefits of Ten Sports