The Hindu Business Line : Heatwave threatens wheat crop

THE unusual spurt in temperatures in much of northern and central India — rendering it one of the hottest March months in recent memory — is raising concerns over the size of the country's wheat crop this year.

While the Agriculture Ministry had, only in the middle of last month, projected wheat output for 2003-04 at 76.12 million tonnes (mt) — against the previous year's drought-affected 65.10 mt and marginally below the record 76.37-mt level of 1999-2000 — the seemingly early onset of summer across the non-Peninsular India may, however, force a downward revision.

This, in turn, could also prompt the Government to go slow on exports, notwithstanding its much-hyped new foodgrain export policy that is still to be operationalised.

Currently, day temperatures in the main wheat-growing belt of Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh are ruling at 33-36 degrees Celsius (5-6 degrees above normal), with minimum night temperatures, too, hovering 5-8 degrees above the normal for this period.

Similar heat wave conditions are prevailing over Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the other major producers of the crop.

"If the three-day mean temperatures touch the 40 degree mark before the first week of April, we can expect a significant impact on yields," warned Dr S. Nagarajan, Director of the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI).

According to him, the situation, as of now, is somewhat manageable because farmers can resort to light irrigation, "which will keep temperatures just about two degrees above normal and, thereby, maintain a favourable micro-climate within their fields".

This is akin to using an umbrella that confers protection against the sweltering heat outside.

The other plus point, Dr Nagarajan said, was that there were no strong dry winds, which can be really dangerous at this point. The wheat crop in North-West India is now in the `early-dough stage' which follows the flowering period towards the last week of February. The 40-45 days period after flowering is the time when `grain filling' takes place, which, to a large extent, determines the weight (and, therefore, yield) of the grain to be harvested after mid-April.

"We are now in the early part of the dough or grain filling stage, when the starch matter is still milky and semi-solid. Ideally, this stage should last for another 10 days, after which the normal heat dries up the moisture and makes the grain hard," Dr Nagarajan noted.

But if temperatures shoot up suddenly, as they are now, there is every possibility of the grain filling stage being cut short, forcing early maturity of the crop.

"To give you an idea, every extra day on the field now means an additional grain weight of 45 kg per hectare. If the crop attains maturity one week or 10 days in advance, it means a yield loss of almost half-a-tonne per hectare", he pointed out.

Considering that the country's total wheat acreage this year is estimated at around 27.3 million hectares, a half-a-tonne decline in average yields translates into an output reduction of 12-13 mt!

Worse could follow, if there are strong winds now, which apart from inducing sudden drying, can also cause lodging of the crop, particularly when the earheads have developed fully. In that case, even light irrigation, similar to the umbrella, will lose its effectiveness.

But all this, Dr Nagarajan clarified, is a worst-case scenario. Indeed, till last month, the situation was extremely bullish, with the total wheat area sown being above normal and the crop exhibiting near-textbook precision at the vegetative growth and flowering stage. "In my opinion, there is still hope, as the latest satellite pictures show the likelihood of cloud formation in the coming 2-3 days, which may help bring down temperatures", he added.

More Stories on : Wheat | Climate & Weather

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Workshop on farm research

JRG launches online commodity trading at Sulthan Bathery

NMCE launches rapeseed-42 futures

Heatwave threatens wheat crop

AP coastal farmers urged to take up vanilla cultivation

Japanese ban on US beef leaves Australia in a spin

Contract farming mooted to counter global threat

Rubber steady; latex declines

Silk exporters sore over move to tax DEPB credit

Malaysian vanaspati worries domestic producers

Chilli trade resumes at Guntur

Groundnut oil export tops 50,000 tonnes