The Hindu Business Line : Iraq: Beyond crony capitalism

THOUGH it is widely believed that Shias account for 60 per cent of the Iraqi population, and are mostly concentrated in the southern parts of the country, this proposition is not compatible with data from the 1997 Census from the `Iraqi' portion of Iraq (that is, excluding the three relatively sparsely populated `Kurdish' governorates of Dahuk, Erbil and Sulaymanyah that the British and the Americans between them refused to let Saddam Hussein canvass that year, but who are known to have accounted for about 13 per cent of Iraq's total population in the 1987 Census).

It turns out that only 40 per cent of the Iraqis live in the 10 densely- populated governorates (of the total 18) that lie south of Baghdad, which lies almost exactly midway between the northern and southern borders of the country.

Even if every single one of these persons were a Shia, that would still leave a lot of Shias in the 22 per cent of the Iraqi population that lives to the north and west of Baghdad, outside areas of Kurdish `control', and among the approximately one of four Iraqis that live in Baghdad itself.

This implies that any form of `indirect' elections in Iraq would be only somewhat less `workable' than direct elections on the `one-man-one-vote' principle.

It is for this reason that UN arbitrators are finding it so hard to arrive at a conclusion acceptable to the most important party concerned; it is for this reason that they are taking such a long time to make up their minds. As the elections approach, however, the US President, Mr George Bush, cannot afford this luxury.

Therefore, contrary to popular expectations in the UN, the EU and Iraq — and the hopes among hopeful Democrats in the race for the Presidential elections — he is sure to somehow ensure that full responsibility for the governance of Iraq is handed over to `democratically nominated' representatives of influential sections of Iraqi people by, before, or shortly after the mandated June 30 deadline.

As it happens, such a procedure had been approved by Clause 9 of the UN Security Council Resolution 1483, which empowers the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq to form "a transitional administration" to run the affairs of Iraq until a "representative government is established by the people of Iraq"; before going on to "note" the establishment of a Development Fund for Iraq, "to be held by the Central Bank of Iraq and audited by independent public accountants, whose members shall include duly qualified representatives of the Secretary-General of the UN, the Managing Director of the IMF, the Director-General of the Arab Fund for Social and Economic Development, and the President of the World Bank".

The revenues of all sales of Iraqi oil were to be duly deposited in this Fund. Clause 15 of 1483 then went on to call upon "the international financial institutions to assist the people of Iraq (as represented, for the time being, by the transitional administration: SR) in the reconstruction and development of their economy and to facilitate assistance by the broader donor community".

The `language' of the Resolution, which was passed almost immediately after the successful takeover of Iraq last summer, is an important indicator that Mr Bush had at that time, despite his impressive triumph, resisted the temptation to `reserve' the spoils of war for himself and his allies; this would among other things have necessitated an amendment to the World Bank byelaws which require the calling of global tenders for major projects.

Be that as it may, the happy optimism of the summer of 2003 did not persist. Not so much because of resistance from within the `Sunni triangle'; as most people have been led to believe by what they see on their screens. But for an entirely different reason.

A close reading of the first paragraph of this article wouldshow up the apparent mismatch between the distribution of the Iraqi population and the density of its various parts. The answer is to be found in the governorate of Anbar, west of Baghdad, that accounts for about a third of Iraq's total area — but less than 5 per cent of its 22 million people.

Anbar is part and parcel of the great `Syrian' Desert (Arabic: Badiyat Ash-sham), the `wasteland' extending northward from the Arabian Peninsula over much of northern Saudi Arabia, eastern Jordan, southern Syria, and western Iraq. Receiving on the average less than 5 inches of rainfall, and largely covered by lava flows, several major motor routes and oil pipelines now `bisect' it. The desert, mainly inhabited by several nomadic tribes, nevertheless somehow provides fertile pasture, and not only for the Arabian horses for which it is famous.

It is one of the main reasons why the security situation in Iraq will remain a cause for worry for years to come, and thereby delay reconstruction, both political and economic. It is also the reason why Mr Bush was wrong about Iraqi oil paying for the war and its somewhat unexpected aftermath.

Instead he had to approach Congress for $87 billion to finance the wars that, for reasons of his own, he chose to launch simultaneously in Iraq and Afghanistan.